November 2013 REC trading witnessed an increase in volumes. The spike in demand is a sign that RPO enforcement is taking its gradual effect and some states are ensuring buyers participation, thereby keeping the market upbeat. For non-solar RECs, the demand increased by 105% w.r.t last month. This indicates, there is increased momentum towards complying with RPO by end of FY 2013-14. With stricter RPO compliance regimes mandated in states like Punjab, Uttarakhand, Maharashtra and Union Territories (recently), clearing ratios can be expected to go up in forthcoming trading session. More insights can be drawn from fig.1.
Fig1: Non-Solar trade stats – November 2013
Non-solar RECs – The supply this month had a flip side. It was reduced to 6.5 % (almost half) as compared last trading session. The inventory at the registry was at 45 Lac RECs owing to reduced issuance (less by 1 lac RECs as compared to last month).
Fig 2: Non-Solar Market Clearing Price – November 2013
33rd trading session offered an alarming signal to the solar REC market space. As compared to previous trading sessions, all the parameters namely demand, supply and cleared volumes plummeted. Demand for solar RECs fell by 20.56 % and at the same time, supply was down by 9.71 %. As per a recent report by CEA, as on 31.07.2013, solar generation capacity (above 1 MW) was only 6.79% (1650 MW) in RE rich states of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu out of total RE capacity of 24265 MW in these states. This shows the lacklustre performance of solar industry in the country which in-turn has resulted into poor supply REC market. Only 2936 solar RECs were issued between 31.10.2013 and 28.11.2013 (Source: REC Registry).
Fig 3: Solar market trade stats – November 2013
Needless to say, the price remained at floor yet again with meagre expectations of an upside.
Fig 4: Solar Market clearing price – November 2013
More data can be found in the table below: