REC Trade Results July 2015

July’s trading session saw a stagnant response from the demand side. Though, the current demand while comparing it to previous year’s session of July was 3 times higher in Solar and 5 times in Non Solar segment, it indicated a lower compliance when comparing it to trading sessions of 2015. A sum total of 173,223 Lakh RECs were redeemed in this session. Demand took a fall of approx. 5 % w.r.t June.  The demand in last two trading sessions was due to the judgment by Supreme Court.

 Analysis of Trading:-

 Non Solar – Clearing ratio in exchange were at 1.33% and 1.15% in IEX and PXIL respectively for Non Solar RECs. A total of 155,271 RECs were redeemed in this trading session. There was seen a fall of approx. 4 % in the current trading session w.r.t to June in Non Solar RECs.

 Solar – Clearing ratio stood at 0.84% and 0.29% in IEX and PXIL respectively. Solar RECs remained at 17,952, which is a show towards a downfall in the demand in the solar RECs segment; it shows a fall of 5640 RECs from June trading session.

Over the longer term, increasing focus on RPO both from the courts and from regulators is expected to increase demand. Over the last many months several developments have taken place including the draft Electricity Act, orders from the ApTel and from the Supreme Court. The most recent development was the release of the draft of Renewable Energy Act 2015. An analysis can be read here.

Team REConnect

Analysis of the 5th Amendment to REC Regulations

Background:

Recently, CERC proposed the 5th amendment to REC regulations. The gist of proposed changes is:

  • Captive generators and portion of power for self-consumption will no longer be eligible for RECs
  • If an open access (OA) project avails concessional wheeling, banking or cross-subsidy benefits, it will not be eligible for RECs

These changes have been proposed in the context of an REC market that faces significant oversupply. As on June 30 2015, RECs worth 2,650 crore remain unsold, and clearing percentages in many months are well below 5%. In most months, more RECs have been issued than redeemed, further aggravating the problem of over-supply.

In the explanatory memorandum, CERC has elaborated on the thinking behind the proposed amendment. The memo states:

Lack of RPO enforcement has been one of the major reasons for the high level of unsold REC inventory. However, it is also important to analyze the supply side aspects and understand whether the right beneficiaries (as was envisaged while introducing REC framework) are participating and able to compete in the REC market. It remains a fact that a major portion of the REC inventory is contributed by the CGPs. Also, developers under third party model are able to leverage the concessional benefits while participating under 
REC framework.” (Emphasis added)

and,

“Around 51% of the projects under the CGP route were commissioned before the first notification (14 January 2010) of the REC Regulation. These projects must have computed their financial viability without the REC benefit.” 


The proposed changes will have far-reaching implications on the REC market structure. As per data provided in the Explanatory Memo approximately 41% of the capacity (under captive generation) will be completely excluded from RECs markets, and a significant portion of OA capacity (19% of total) will be impacted.

Analysis by REConnect Energy suggests that annual RECs generation may fall from 96.25 lakhs in FY 14-15 to 54.30 lakhs per year after the amendment.

Table: Annual RECs Issuance

 Sources: REC registry website; REConnect analysis

Note: Annualized redemption is assumed to be 2X times redemption is FY 14-15. Increase is expected due to SC order and Electricity Act amendment.

Impact on Open Access (OA) projects:

The proposed amendment is contrary to the provision in the draft Electricity Amendment bill (EA Bill) in the Parliament, and of many state policies.

The EA Bill says:

Sec 42(4):

“The open access consumers procuring electricity from renewable energy sources shall not be required to pay the surcharge for open access for such period as may be prescribed by the Central Government”

 Surcharge in the above context means cross-subsidy surcharge (CSS).

 If the EA Bill is to be passed by the Parliament, the impact of the 5th Amendment will be to make all RE projects in OA ineligible for RECs. This will discourage OA in renewable energy – something that goes against one of the principle objectives of the EA and of CERC (to encourage market development in the electricity sector).

Further, many states allow concessional cross-subsidy or exemption from cross-subsidy as a way to promote open access in RE projects. For example, Rajasthan’s solar policy exempts solar projects under open access from CSS. Similar provisions exist in many state policies.

Renewable Energy projects will not be viable under open access without concessional CSS provided by the states. States realize this – and therefore the concession exists in the first place. If RECs benefits were to be denied to such projects, it’s the equivalent of giving from one hand and taking from another. The net result of the amendment will be to completely finish-off the OA market for RE power – this is something that will be contrary to one of the fundamental pillars of the Electricity Act.

Further, in many existing OA transactions, prices are likely to have been negotiated knowing the fact that the RE project will get revenue from RECs. Such projects may suddenly become unviable. In many states with low tariffs, such projects will not remain competitive without RECs and therefore risk becoming NPAs.

Impact on Captive Generating (CGP) projects:

As mentioned above, the impact on CGPs of the amendment will be drastic. All CGP’s will be considered ineligible for RECs benefits. However, in proposing the amendment, CERC has failed to consider the case of two categories of projects–

(1)   CGPs set up specifically to meet RPO requirements, and

(2)   CGPs under the group captive mechanism

Since CERC amended the RECs regulation to allow self-retention of RECs by obligated entities, many companies have set up CGPs in one state and meet their obligation in other states through retention of RECs. This approach has multiple benefits – it has encouraged setting up of new RE capacity, and also helps the obligated entity manage its compliance costs.

The proposed amendment will take away this benefit to obligated entities. This is erroneous on three counts – (a) the CGP is likely to have been setup by the obligated entity to meet RPO across units. Such an investment, made in good faith keeping in mind existing regulations, may become redundant after the regulation, (b) it will discourage setting up of large new RE capacities as obligated entities will not be able to meet RPO in states that have low RE resources, and (c) it will take away a valid means for obligated entities to comply with RPO, leaving them with very limited options – buying of RECs.

Group captive projects, on the other hand, also face difficulties due to the amendment. In many group captive projects, the primary investment is made by an investor, and power prices are determined through negotiations. Further, such projects tend to be long term in nature as they involve an element of equity investment by the consumer. A sudden change in RECs eligibility is likely to make such projects unviable, and result in severe losses to investors who set up projects assuming a stable RECs regime.

Overall, we believe that while CERC’s intent to correct the supply imbalance in the RECs market is needed, the unintended consequence of the 5th amendment on open access and captive projects will be harmful to the growth of the renewable energy industry.

REConnect Newsletter Volume 52 (June 2015) – OPEN ACCESS

Dear Reader,

 We are please to present OPEN ACCESS – our monthly newsletter that covers important developments in the renewable energy markets. This month’s newsletter covers:

  • Detailed analysis of the 5th Amendment to REC regulations proposed by CERC. This amendment will have significant impact on renewable energy based CPPs and OA projects, and also on the market demand-supply situation down the road
  • Updates on regulatory changes from Gujarat, Telangana, MP, Mahasrashtra, JERC and Rajasthan
  • Analysis of the REC trading sessions in June. Demand was well below May trading volumes. However, the broad trend remains positive due to the SC order on RPO.

 The newsletter can also be downloaded by clicking here - or past newsletters from here.

We hope you enjoy reading the newsletter. Please send us comments and feedback.

 Regards,

 Team REConnect

REC Trade Results – June 2015

The June trade session remained below expectations compared to May’15 month performance. However, if we compare the performance with Jun’14, the response was still far better. After the announcement of an important judgment by Supreme Court, the market looks upbeat and we can expect better demand in upcoming trade sessions.

Analysis of Trading:

Non-Solar – Total 161,845 RECs were cleared in this trading session. IEX and PXIL had a clearing ratio of 1.6% and 0.84% respectively. Total RECs redeemed this month was approx. 1 Lakh RECs lower w.r.t May’15.

Solar - RECs redeemed this month remained at 23,648 RECs. The clearing ratio was 1.4% and 0.17% in IEX and PXIL respectively. Solar REC traded this month were approximately 60 (sixty) thousand lower w.r.t to May trading session.

The REC trade results in the FY 2015-16 are summarized below for your reference.

REC Trade Results Feb 2015

We are pleased to share the Result of REC trading for the month of FEB-15.

  • Solar RECs – Overall market clearance remained optimistic this time, with steep rise in demand at PXIL and overall good clearance at both the exchanges. Demand rose from close to 30000 last month to 44,869 this time, albeit the huge inventory waiting to be cleared.
  • Non Solar REC market also showed good signs of improvement with total of 747,487 Non-Solar RECs getting cleared in today’s trade session, compared to 537,009 in the last trading session.

Detailed trade results are tabled below for your kind reference.

Non-Solar RECs

Solar RECs

REConnect Energy is the market leader in the REC Market in India, with 36% market share and a portfolio of over 3 GW RE. We have been recently acknowledged with the REC Trader of the Year 2014.

Team REConnect

 

 

CERC: REC Regulation 3rd Amendment

We are pleased to inform that Hon’ble CERC has finalized a much awaited 3rd Amendment on REC Mechanism. The Central Commission has laid out following changes through this legislation/order:

REC Regulation (3rd Amendment) | Order on Vintage Multipler |  Statement of Objects & Reasons

DISCOMs to get RECs for surplus green power they would have procured. However, this is applicable only if such DISCOM has procured green power over and above RPO target set under NAPCC or National Tariff Policy or by Appropriate Commission WHICHEVER IS HIGHER. Further, before granting RECs for surplus green power, any shortfall in RPO or any carry forward in RPO granted by Commission in PREVIOUS THREE YEARs would be adjusted first before issuance of RECs to such DISCOM. Provided further, such DISCOM would need permission from appropriate commission to procure such green power.

Implications: This provision clearly brings clear incentives for DISCOM having procured higher amount of green power beyond their RPO targets. However, since the proviso brings forth conditionality of “higher of NAPCC, Tariff Policy or State Commission mandated RPO target”, DISCOM would have to align themselves first with all the three RPO targets. We can say that the Center would now have a greater say in directing RPO trajectory which was missing so far.

Pre-Term reduction in Solar Floor/Forbearance Price. The new Floor price now stands at Rs.3500/MWh and Forbearance Price at Rs.5800/MWh.

Vintage Multiplier for Solar RECs has been introduced. Solar projects registered under REC Mechanism after 1st Jan, 2015 would get 1 REC for every MWh of generation. Projects registered before that would get 2.66 RECs for every MWh of energy.

Implications: This proviso brings clear divide between projects that are already registered and projects which would get registered under REC mechanism from today onwards. Since the reduction of REC price would bring additional demand, the sudden spike in supply of REC would again result into subdued/depressed clearance ratio of Solar RECs.

With the current inventory of 5.8 Lac RECs available, we can expect the inventory to shoot to about 15.5 Lac Solar RECs immediately. Further, with 538 MW Solar PV capacity already registered under REC, the inventory pile up can increase rapidly given the multiplier effect.

Differential treatment of Captive/CGP and OA based REC generator has been kept in abeyance.  Hon’ble commission has kept the decision to grant reduced number of RECs to OA/Captive based REC Generator in ABEYANCE and has directed staff to come up with a fresh discussion paper to accommodate the same.

The Hindu Business Line quoted – “ The CERC notification lowering the price band is significant because the previous band did not serve any purpose. Even the floor price (Rs 9,300 per REC) was very high. Since one REC is issued for every megawatt-hour of electricity generated, the floor price translated to Rs 9.30 per unit of solar power. Nobody would buy an REC at this price because any obligated entity would find it cheaper to buy solar energy, which is now available at between Rs 6 and Rs 7 a unit, rather than buy a solar REC paying Rs 9.30. The solar industry had been clamoring for a downward revision of the band”. The same can be read in the media article here.

Regulation (Suo Motu Order), Notification and Statement of Reasons can be accessed.

The same has been mentioned in a media article here.

 

CERC: 3rd Amendment (Draft) to REC Mechanism

We are pleased to convey that hon’ble CERC has issued 3rd amendment on REC Mechanism. Key highlights of the same are summarized below:

  1. Eligibility Criteria

A)      DISCOMs having met their previous year RPO can also claim RECs for surplus green power purchased.

  • IMPACT: We can expect additional non-solar RECs from TN, HP and possibly from Karnataka. Gujarat is expected to benefit by the way of getting Solar RECs as installed capacity in Solar exceeds solar RPO targets.
  • Open Access route for RE project may become tougher as DISCOMs now have an additional incentive to procure green power and claim certificates.

B)      OA and CGP route to get reduced number of RECs:

  • It’s proposed in the amendment that OA and CGP based RE generator to be given 0.5 REC for every 1 MWh of generation.
  • IMPACT: The analysis in the draft paper suggests that as much as 65% of installed RE capacity under REC represents OA/CGP route. The % share in net REC number would be even higher as biomass and bagasse based REC project would operate at higher PLF. Hence, this would reduce the REC inventory at least by 40% w.r.t current issuance mark.
  • A much awaited step to bring back buyers confidence in procuring Solar RECs. 
  • The new floor price that would be applicable to ALL SOLAR projects has been reduced to Rs.3500/REC and forbearance price to Rs.5800/REC.
  • The order suggests that solar projects commissioned during year 2013 would get 1.47 Solar RECs, 2014 would get 1.19 Solar RECs and 2015 onwards to get 1 REC for every 1 MWh of Generation.
  • Likewise, OA and CGP based REC projects to get 0.74, 0.6 and 0.5 Solar RECs (2013, 2014 and 2015 respectively) for every 1 Mwh.
  1. Vintage Multiplier for Solar Projects:

According to our understanding, there are three main issues in the current REC market.

  1. Over supply of RECs
  2. Skewed pricing of RECs especially in case of Solar
  3. Laid-back enforcement.

The summary of REC Floor and Forbearance price is shown in the graph below:

The current regulation seems to tackle first two issues as the third part is largely in the hands of state regulators. Overall it’s a welcome step and would reinstate faith of stakeholders in REC market. 

The comments are invited by hon’ble CERC not later than 30.10.2014 and hearing is scheduled on 04.11.2014. We request all the stakeholders to submit their comments and express their views to hon’ble Commission. 

The relevant document can be accessed here.

Press Coverage Link.

Contributed By: Vibhav Nuwal

REC Trading Report August-2014

REC trading session of August-14 was conducted on 27th August 2014.  Below is a summary of the result:-

Demand continues to be lack-lusture. Overall demand was 50681 for non-solar RECs, and 1163 solar RECs. Overall market clearing ratio for Non-solar RECs was 0.58%, and for Solar RECs was 0.35%. Summary is given below in the table below.

 

  • Non Solar REC:

Though the Total RECs redeemed this month increased over previous month, it was due to poor demand in July. The demand picked up by 60% from the month of July. The supply rose marginally by 5% w.r.t July. Non Solar price remained at 1500 INR (Floor Price).

Clearing ratios at IEX were 0.40% and PXIL were 0.73%.

 

 

  • Solar REC:

Demand fell significantly over previous month. However, demand was exceptional last month due to purchase by a Discom.. The Total supply grew by 15% with respect to July. Only 1163 RECs were traded this month which was next to lowest as of in this year.

Clearing ratios at IEX were 0.24% and PXIL were 0.43%.

 

Contributed By: Cigil & Vibhav Nuwal

 

REConnect Newsletter Volume 43 – OPEN ACCESS

Dear Reader,

We are pleased to present Open Access Vol 43 – our monthly newsletter covering RECs and regulatory and market developments in the renewable energy space.

The main article covers:

The government announced the re-introduction of Accelerated Deprecaition for wind projects. This was a major announcement for the Renewable energy industry. Our main article provides a detailed analysis of the impact of this change, and the relative merits and de-merits of investing in wind or solar projects.

This issue also covers:

- Details of the next batch of bidding for solar projects announced in JNNSM

- Details of the FOR meeting that took up the need for strong RPO enforcement

- Various other regulatory developments in Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, Karnataka, and other states

Past newsletters can be accessed here - http://www.reconnectenergy.com/newsletter/past-newsletters/

For latest news and updates, please visit our blog at – http://reconnectenergy.com/blog/

 As always, we will love to hear your feedback on the newsletter.

- Team REConnect

Forum of Regulators discusses Issues of RPO

Forum of Regulators (FOR) held its 41st meeting on 27th June 2014, in Delhi. The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), through a presentation, raised several issues concerning Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO).

The Key issues highlighted in the presentations are as below:

  • MNRE suggested that the validity REC’s should be extended by 6 months, arguing that a total of 50059 REC’s will expire in next six months.
  • It was suggested that MNRE could consider purchasing the unsold REC’s by using National Clean Energy Fund.
  • The Floor price of Solar REC’s can be reduced due to drastic change (reduction) in Solar PV tariffs over last three years.
  • Giving “MUST RUN” status to RE generation, so that total RE generation could be evacuated, and  have a provision of “Deemed Generation” in case SLDC asked RE generators to back down.
  • Due to poor RPO compliance in all states, the members agreed upon the need of strong RPO enforcement.
  • RPO compliance cost should be allowed in ARR (Average Revenue requirement).
  • The issue of allowing DISCOM’s to purchase REC’s for procuring Renewable Energy beyond their RPO targets was also discussed.
  • The forum suggested that a concept of Renewable Generation Obligation (RGO) for conventional Thermal power plants need to be introduced.
  • Suggestions were given on considering power generated from Large Hydro Projects as Renewable Energy.
  • The Forum also suggested that the concept of Hydro Power Obligation should be introduced.

 From the issues discussed in the meeting it can be deduced that the regulators may come up with strong steps towards RPO compliance. Also, the regulators are set to promote RE generation by making provision for providing proper transmission network for RE generation.

 More information can be accessed here.

 Contributed by Dheeraj Babariya.

 

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