REC Trade Result May 2016

May 2016 saw reduced traded volumes compared to last month and from May 2015. Generally early months of the compliance year see significantly reduced trading volumes. However, May 2015 saw high trading volume due to the Supreme Court order on RPO compliance.

Compared to last month, this month saw a reduction of demand by approximately 44.3% and 21.7%, for non-solar and solar respectively. The total transaction value stood at 31.5 Crores as compared to 113 Crores last month.

This month also saw significant rise in total REC issuance, which stood more than double of what it was last month. However, while solar issuance fell marginally, there was a steep rise in issuance of non-solar RECs. This also resulted in increased quantum of Sell bids at the exchanges.

Analysis of Trading:

Non Solar – Clearing ratio in exchange stood at 1.15% and 1.38% in IEX and PXIL respectively for Non Solar REC’s. A total of 161,858 RECs were traded as compared to 290,457 RECs traded in April.

Solar – Clearing ratio stood good at 0.61% and 0.41% in IEX and PXIL respectively, with total clearing volume falling marginally as compared to last month.

 

The graph below is a Y-o-Y graph which depicts the comparison of REC Traded from May 2014 to May 2015 and May 2015 to May 2016.

 

 

 

REC Trade Result April 2016

April, being the first month of the Financial Year to, saw good demand in both segments, as compared to the April-2015. The total transaction value stood at 113 Crores as compared to 213 Crores last month.

 

Analysis of Trading:

 

Non Solar – Clearing ratio in exchange stood at 2.66% and 1.38% in IEX and PXIL respectively for Non Solar REC’s. A total of 290,457 RECs were traded as compared to 11, 14,319 RECs traded in March.

 

Solar – Clearing ratio stood good at 0.98% and 0.26% in IEX and PXIL respectively, with total clearing volume of 25,653, as compared to 152,006 last month.

 

The detailed result is given below:

The graph below is a Y-o-Y graph which depicts the comparison of REC Traded from April 2014 to April 2015 and April 2015 to April 2016.

 

This month also saw significant fall in REC issuance to almost one-third to what it was in March. This can be primarily attributed to the recent amendment to principal REC Regulation, which has caused reduction in supply of RECs to the market from Captive/Self-consuming RE entities. For more details refer our blog.

We are hopeful that the FY 2016-17 will bring good fortune to the REC market, considering the proposed regulatory changes and more stricter enforcement by states, which will bring back stakeholders confidence.

Maharashtra Published RPO Regulations for FY 2016-17 to FY 2019-20

Maharashtra published RPO regulations covering the period FY 2016-17 to FY 2019-20. The highlights of the regulation are:

 

  • RPO % in FY 2016-17 is 11% in total (10% non-solar and 1% solar). This will increase to 15% by FY 2019-20 (11.5% non-solar and 3.5% solar)

 

  • The regulations are broadly in line with the standard regulations of RPO across various states, except the following clauses:

 

  • RPO is no longer exempt on co-generation power. The Statement of Reasons (SOR) accompanying the regulations refers to the National Tariff Policy as a reason for removing exemption from RPO on co-gen power.

 

  • RPO is applicable only on consumption of conventional power. This is a significant deviation as the Electricity Act/ CERC/ other states require calculation of RPO on “total consumption”. By leaving out RE power from RPO calculation, Maharashtra risks providing double benefit to RE generators – it is possible that a consumer that consumes power from RE sources does not attract RPO provisions and at the same time claims offset of such RE power towards meeting RPO on conventional power.

 

  • RPO is applicable on CPPs with installed capacity of 5MW or more and open access consumers with a contract demand of 5 MVA or more. This will leave out significant open access and captive capacity form the ambit of RPO applicability.

The regulation can be accessed here.

REC Trade Result March 2016

March, being the last month of the Financial Year to fulfil the yearly RPO obligations, saw significant rise in demand in both the Solar and Non-Solar segments, as compared to the last three months. Non-Solar RECs demand almost doubled and Solar RECs demand rose by 68.45%, as compared to February. This was the result of stricter compliance and can also be attributed to the recent Ad by MNRE asking all entities to fulfil their obligation. The total transaction value stood at 213.3 Crores as compared to 119.5 Crores last month.

Analysis of Trading:

Non Solar – Clearing ratio in exchange stood at 7.65% and 8.93% in IEX and PXIL respectively for Non Solar REC’s. A total of 11, 14,319 RECs were traded as compared to 586,501 RECs traded in February. Overall, it was a good recovery in this segment, which also saw the closing Inventory come down marginally.

Solar – Clearing ratio stood good at 5.07% and 3.35% in IEX and PXIL respectively, with total clearing volume of 152,006, as compared to 90,236 last month. The recovery was good, but contrary to the Non-Solar inventory, the solar inventory showed no reduction.

 

As compared to March-2015, where the Non-Solar and Solar demand stood at 654985 and 68982 respectively, it was 70% and 120% higher for Non-Solar and solar respectively, in March-2016. However, the closing inventory for the FY stands at 13.28 million and 3.31 million for Non-Solar and Solar respectively, worth close to Rs. 3151 Crores. April-2015 trading saw huge clearance due to late fulfillment of obligations, and the same can be expected next month as well.

We are hopeful that the FY 2016-17 will bring good fortune to the REC market, considering the proposed regulatory changes and more stricter enforcement by states, which will bring back stakeholders confidence.

MNRE Issues Notice on RPO compliance

The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy in collaboration with Government of India has made a great initiative by spreading the message about RPO and the need for its compliance through Times of India.  The Government highlights that all the obligated entities must comply with their RPO by March 15-16 since this trading session will be the last trading session of the compliance year, whose result calls for stricter enforcement by states. The Times of India’s article can be viewwd below

REC Trade Result February 2016

RECs demand has shown significant improvement over last month trading session. Non Solar REC’s and Solar REC’s traded this month were 70% higher and 57% higher respectively, compared to trading session of January 2016. The total transaction value of REC’s hit a sum total of Rs 119.5 crore, compared to Rs. 71.78 crore last month.

Analysis of Trading:

Non Solar – Clearing ratio in exchange stood at 3.89% and 4.75% in IEX and PXIL respectively for Non Solar REC’s. A total of 586,501 were traded as compared to 344,519 RECs traded in January, but much lower than the volume cleared in December trading session.

Solar – Clearing ratio stood good at 2.14% and 3.58% in IEX and PXIL respectively, with total clearing volume of 90,236, as compared to 57,420 last month. The increase is significant, with much better performance expected next month.

 

Trading volumes are expected to increase significantly during March trading session, as most obligated entities will want to fulfill their obligation for the FY. This trading session results are encouraging, considering last month performances, riding on higher demand on both exchanges. However, compared to the trading session of February 2015, where Non-Solar and Solar clearing volume stood at 747,487 & 44,869 respectively, the performance of Non-Solar RECs was below par whereas Solar RECs demand more than doubled.

 

The trade result for the month of January can be accessed here.

NLDC Invites Comments for bi-monthly REC Trading Session

National Load Dispatch Centre has invited comments and suggestions, on the REC Procedure considering bi-monthly REC trading sessions, by 1st March 2016 to the Central Agency. The following modification has been proposed for the “Procedure for Redemption of REC’s”:

  • All valid RECs excluding the RECs applied for Self-retention shall be traded on the second and last Wednesday of every month.
  • The eligible entity shall exclude the RECs applied for self-retention in the particular month, if applicable, for dealing on Power Exchange.

It’s a much needed step by NLDC as it enhances the platform for a better market price discovery. This change would be beneficial for the generators and to the obligated entities, since if the RECs are not traded in the current month, they would not have to wait for an entire month to clear the REC’s.

Also it would promote the developers to meet their RPO as we have seen many regulatory actions coming up in the form of compliance orders and proceedings in several states like Orissa, Kerala, MP and Maharashtra recently.

We also feel that the bi-monthly REC trading could be intensified if quarterly or at least half yearly compliance of RPO is made compulsory instead of yearly. This would push the obligated entities more to gear up and fulfill their obligation and thus benefit the REC market.

 

REC TRADE RESULTS JANUARY 2016

RECs demand had been steadily rising in the past few months, but this month’s trading saw a signficant drop in trading volume as compared to last month. Non Solar REC’s and Solar REC’s traded this month were 61.6% lower and 6.79% lower respectively, compared to trading session of December 2015. The total transaction value of REC’s hit a sum total of Rs 71.77 crore, compared to Rs. 156 crore last month.

The reason in drop in trading volume are two fold – a) Previous month trading volumes were higher than normal driven by a specific order of RERC for compliance and b) the Republic Day holiday on Tuesday (also a banking holiday) presented a logistics hurdle for some obligated entities to trade.

Trading volumes are expected to increase significantly going forward, as most obligated entities are now gearing up to fulfill their obligation considering that only 2 trading sessions are remaining in the current FY. Last quarter of previous FY saw RECs trading volume of 20.85L. We should expect a significant increase over that this FY – this means we will see significant volumes in February and March.

Analysis of Trading:

Non Solar – Clearing ratio in exchange were at 2.16% and 3.12% in IEX and PXIL respectively for Non Solar REC’s. A total of 344,519 were traded as compared to 898,439 RECs were traded in DecemberClearing ratio at PXIL saw a jump, but IEX results showed huge dip in demand. Overall Non-Solar demand was below expectation

Solar – Clearing ratio stood good at 1.65% and 2.34% in IEX and PXIL respectively. However, the total clearing volume fell to 57,420, as compared to 61,602 last month. This was a marginal fall, but since we are approaching FY end, much better results were awaited.

 

Trading volumes are expected to increase significantly going forward, as most obligated entities are now gearing up to fulfill their obligation considering that only 2 trading sessions are remaining in the current FY . Further, this year we have seen regulatory action in the form of compliance orders and/ or proceedings in several states like Orissa, Kerala, UP, MP and Maharashtra, to name a few. This trading session result calls for stricter enforcement by states, since the next two months will be very crucial for the future of the REC Market.

 

The December’s trade result can be accessed here.

REC TRADE RESULTS DECEMBER 2015

The demand response for REC’s saw very good momentum in the December’s trading session. Non Solar REC’s and Solar REC’s traded this month were 288% higher and 29.8% lower respectively, compared to trading session of November. The total transaction value of REC’s hit a sum total of Rs 156 crores, compared to Rs. 65 crores last month.

Analysis of Trading:

Non Solar – Clearing ratio in exchange were at 8.31% and 2.22% in IEX and PXIL respectively for Non Solar REC’s. A total of 898,439 RECs were traded in this trading session (in November 231,545 RECs were traded). Clearing ratio at IEX saw a huge jump, whereas the effect was opposite on PXIL.

Solar – Clearing ratio stood at 2.62% and 0.37% in IEX and PXIL respectively, compared to 2.07% and 4.97% last month. The total clearing fell by 26,165, as compared to last month, with PXIL recording very low clearance this time.

 

Trading volumes are expected to increase significantly going forward, as most obligated entities are now gearing up to fulfill their obligation considering that only 3 trading sessions are remaining in the current FY . Further, this year we have seen regulatory action in the form of compliance orders and/ or proceedings in several states like Orissa, Kerala, UP, MP and Maharashtra, to name a few. Overall the market showed clear signs of recovery, especially Non-Solar, and is expected to grow further in the closing months of the FY.

The November’s result can be accessed here.

 

REC Trade Results November 2015

RECs demand has been steadily rising, and this month results have been very encouraging. Non Solar REC’s and Solar REC’s traded this month were 9.5% and 533% higher compared to trading session of October. The total transaction value of REC’s hit a sum total of Rs 65.5 crores, compared to Rs. 36.5 crores last month.

Analysis of Trading:

Non Solar – Clearing ratio in exchange were at 1.44% and 1.90% in IEX and PXIL respectively for Non Solar REC’s. A total of 2, 31,545 RECs were traded in this trading session (in October 2, 11,442 RECs were traded)Clearing ratio at PXIL reduced marginally but picked up on IEX, as compared to last month.

Solar – Clearing ratio stood at 2.07% and 4.97% in IEX and PXIL respectively, compared to 0.54% and 0.33% last month. A total of 87,767 REC’s were sold in this session, 6.33 times compared to October.

Trading volumes are expected to increase significantly going forward, as most obligated entities are now gearing up to fulfill their obligation considering that only 4 trading sessions are remaining in the current FY . Further, this year we have seen regulatory action in the form of compliance orders and/ or proceedings in several states like Orissa, Kerala, UP, MP and Maharashtra, to name a few. Overall the market showed clear signs of recovery, and is expected to grow further in the closing months of the FY.

The October’s trade results can be accessed here.

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