DERC NOTIFIES RPO REGULATION

The DERC has released draft RPO regulations in an order dated 28/07/2017. Following are the salient features of the regulation:

 

  1. RPO Compliance:

  • Aggregate from the gross purchases from generating stations by Obligated entities shall be considered as the quantum of RE purchase for RPO compliance.

  • All the power produced from Waste-to-energy plants shall be procured by the distribution licensee. This will also contribute towards RPO compliance.

  • Quarterly reports shall be submitted by the obligated entities which will include parameters such as capacity addition, generation and purchase of electricity from RE sources. The same shall also be posted on their website.

  1. Role of SNA:

 

  • Protocol development for regular information collection from RE generating companies, obligated entities, SLDC, chief electrical inspector, ets.

  • RE procurement and RPO compliance reports on a monthly basis by obligated entities which shall also go on their websites. This shall be done by the 10th of the next month.

  • It shall also receive information on or before 30th April from captive users who are consuming electricity generated from captive generating plants about electricity consumption and purchase from RE sources.

  • The same shall be applicable for open access consumers.

This regulation isn’t very different from the previous RPO regulation which was released in October 2012.

The order can be accessed here. The public notice can be accessed here.

KERC DETERMINES RETAIL TARIFF FOR STATE

Karnataka Electricity Regulatory Commission in its order dated 11th April, 2017, has approved the retail supply tariff for 2017-18. The tariff hike proposed by the KERC for industrial and commercial consumers and a comparison of the existing and the new tariff proposed by the commission can be seen as follows:

 

 

The table below represents the cross subsidy charges worked out as per the different consumer category:

 

The order can be accessed here.

MPERC RELEASES TARIFF ORDER FOR LV, HV AND EHV CONSUMERS:

Madhya Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission (MPERC) in its order dated 1st April 2016 has determined the tariff for Low Voltage (LV), High Voltage (HV) and Extra High Voltage (EHV). A summary of the tariff for HV3 consumers which includes Industrial, Non-industrial and Shopping Malls has been given in the table below:

The order can be accessed here

REC Trade Results January 2017

This month’s trading saw a remarkable turnaround with respect to the overall Non solar REC clearance. The clearance ration stood at a shooting high of 10.8% for non solar. The demand for solar REC saw marginal improvement in respect to the month of December. The total transaction value stood at 244.7Crores in comparison to 74.4 Crores last month.

Analysis of Trading:

Non Solar – The clearing ratio stood at 13.5% and 5.7% in both IEX and PXIL, with a drastic increase of 260% in the no. of REC’s traded as compared to last month.

 

 

Solar – Clearing ratio stood at 1.2% and 0.7% in IEX and PXIL respectively, with a significant increase of 49% in total demand of Solar RECs as compared to December.

 

Solar Power Tariff hits new low

A recent article in the Business Standard highlighted the solar power tariff which has hit a new low.  In a Solar Energy Corporation of India’s auction of rooftop solar power projects, Gurgaon-based Amplus Energy Solutions quoted a tariff of Rs. 3 /unit defeating the previous low of Rs 4 /unit for a solar park in Rajasthan by a quarter. The rooftop projects will be installed on buildings of NGOs, educational institutes, hospitals, trusts and not for profit companies in these states.

The lowest tariff quote for these projects is same as average tariff offered by state-run generation utility NTPC for power from its coal-fired plants and nearly half of tariffs charged by some private power producers.

Till now, a solar project at Badhla in Rajasthan held the record for the lowest tariff at Rs 4 per unit in the solar park category. The lowest tariff before that was Rs 4.34 per unit, quoted by Fortum India in January.

CERC Determines fees for issuance of Renewable Energy Certificates

In a recent amendment in the Regulation 11 of the REC Regulations, CERC determined the fees and charges payable by the eligible entities for participation in the scheme for, registration, eligibility of certificates, issuance of certificates, and other matters connected there with.  Following are some of the highlights of the regulation:

 

a)      Fees and charges other than those for issuance of certificates would be continued as they are at present until further orders.

 

b)      The fee for issuance of certificate for the period from 22.4.2013 till the date of issuance of next order by the Commission was determined at the rate of Rs 10/certificate.

 

c)      The fee for issuance of certificate for the period from 1.4.2015 till the date of issuance of next order by the Commission was to be regularized at the rate of Rs 4/certificate.

 

d)      The fees for issuance of certificate for the period from 1.1.2017 until further orders is determined to be Rs 2/- per certificate.

 

The regulation can be accessed here.

REC Trade result December 2016

This month trading saw good results with respect to the Non solar REC clearance overall. The demand for solar REC saw marginal improvement in respect to the last month. The total transaction value stood at 74.4 Crores in comparison to 53.6 Crores last month.

This month saw fall in the total issuance where the demand decreased by 4.60Lakhs in comparison to November. Though there had been significant increase in the total REC issuance due to the impact of CERC’s 4th amendment to RECs regulations.

Analysis of Trading:

Non Solar – The clearing ratio stood at 3.19% and 2.81% in both IEX and PXIL, with a significant increase of 61% in the no. of REC’s traded as compared to last month

Solar – Clearing ratio stood at 0.85% and 0.53% in IEX and PXIL respectively, with a dip of 23% in total demand of Solar RECs as compared to November.

 

 

 

REC Market demand & supply forecast for FY 16-17

Every year, around the mid-year mark we forecast the demand and supply in the RECs markets for the remain-der of the financial year. The second half of the FY is the busy period for the RECs markets as most transactions take place in this period. As an example, of the 43 lakh non-solar RECs sold last year, 9 lakh were sold between Apr – Sept 2015 and 34 lakh were sold from Oct 15 – March 2016 (21% and 79% split between the two halves of the year).
FY 16-17 is characterized by several changes in the RECs markets :-

  • Significantly higher demand compared to same pe-riod last year for Non-solar RECs (non-solar RECs de-mand is up by 51% compared to the same period last year, ie April to November)
  • Drastic reduction in RECs issuances due to impact of CERC’s 4th amendment to RECs regulations
  • Impeding price change in the short term (April 2017) particularly for solar RECs
  • Changing regulations in light of the national tariff policy (NTP). This will result in much higher RPO and removal of exemption for co-gen. However, due to inconsistencies in the NTP with the Electricity Act 2003 we expect the impact of these changes to be visible only in the next FY.

Overall, we expect demand to remain robust for Non-solar RECs (but not for Solar RECs). Increased demand, combined with significantly lower issuances of RECs will result in much improved clearing ratio for projects that are holding RECs.
Demand Comparison
As mentioned above, demand for non-solar RECs has been robust compared to the same period last year. As of Novem-ber, demand is up by 51% compared to the same period last year.
We expect this trend to continue, driven by several factors –

  • Several regulatory commissions have given out orders for RPO compliance during the year – this is likely to result in significant demand in the coming months. Notable examples are Maharashtra and Kerala.
  • Private Discom’s, which are large buyers, have so far re-mained marginal participants in the market. This is expected to change in the coming months.
  • CPP and open access consumers will continue to be ma-jor buyers, with several new participants coming into the market in the coming months.

Demand for Solar RECs this year compared to the same pe-riod last year has been down by 1%, or essentially the same. However, we believe that by end of FY 16-17, there is a pos-sibility that the total demand totals less than that of the pre-vious year.

This is because the current floor prices are valid only till March 31, 2017. The general expectation is of a small correction in the price of Non-solar RECs and a signifi-cant correction in the price of solar RECs. Besides this, the vintage multiplier (of 2.66x) currently in place will also expire. This may result in

(a) Significant price reduc-tion of Solar RECs,

(b) a major jump in S-RECs inventory as existing S-RECs are adjusted to the new price, and

(c) drastic reduction in S-RECs issuance from April 2017 on-wards.
These changes in the near future make market forecast-ing for solar RECs a perilous task. Our approach assess demand in the same basis as mentioned above, but moderates it by a significant factor as closer to March obligated entities are expected to hold off purchases till new prices take effect.

RECs Supply
Two factors have resulted in reduced supply of RECs :-

 

  • Several projects have existed the RECs mechanism in favor of green power sale/ state tariff PPA or captives as RECs are no longer a viable mechanism
  • Impact of the 4th amendment to RECs regulations by CERC

As a result, Non-solar RECs issuance is down by 38%  compared to the same period last year, and Solar RECs issu-ances down by 41%. Going forward, we expect the non-solar RECs issuance to remain subdued compared to last year (as a big impact of the 4th amendment has been on sugar co-gen project which see issuances starting from November to April or May). For the full year FY16-17 we forecast Non-solar RECs issuance to be 35% below the last year number. The reduction in Solar RECs issuance is due to higher issu-ance last year as a result of solar vintage multipliers, and time-lag this year as the documentation related to 4th amendment is completed. Overall, we expect the year to end with roughly 30% lower issuance compared to last year.

Demand and supply
We have forecast demand under three scenarios –

(1) Base case – demand from states that have enforced RPO in the past or have current orders for RPO enforcement are in-cluded. Even for such states, a probably of demand material-izing is applied to the total RPO gap;

(2) Medium enforce-ment – expected demand from states that have on-going RPO assessment are added to the demand in scenario 1;

(3) High enforcement – this scenario envisages that most states will take some action towards RPO enforcement. Under this scenario, even those states that have not enforced RPO regulations till date are expected to initiate action, albeit the expected demand from such states is moderated by assign-ing a low probability (20-30%).

Conclusion:

Looking at the overall picture after the demand-supply forecasting exercise shows the following:

  • Non-solar RECs markets are showing a significant improvement. Demand is up by 51% compared to last year, and this year may become the first one in which demand exceeds issuance during the year. This is a major development towards the revival of the RECs markets.
  • Solar RECs market however is lagging behind. Demand has failed to increase this year, and may actually be lower than last year. This is driven primarily by expectation of drastic price decrease in April 2017. Only possibility of this scenario changing is if a large demand comes Discom’s.

 

REC Trade Result November 2016

This month trading saw stagnant results in respect to the demand for Non-Solar REC’s. The demand for solar REC saw marginal improvement in respect to the last month. The total transaction value stood at 53.6 Crores in comparison to 50.6 Crores last month.

 

Analysis of Trading:

 

Non Solar – The clearing ratio stood at 1.85% and 2% in both IEX and PXIL, with a significant increase of 2.25% in the no. of REC’s traded as compared to last month

Solar – Clearing ratio stood at 1.13 % and 0.96% in IEX and PXIL respectively, with an increase of 17.5% in total demand of Solar RECs as compared to last month.

 

This month also saw significant increase in total REC issuance, where the demand increased by 9 lakh in comparison to October. This could be attributed due to the impact of CERC’s 4th amendment to RECs regulations.

Uttarakhand Electricity Regulatory Commission (Renewable Power Purchase Obligation and its Compliance)

The Ministry of Power (MoP) had recently declared the national RPO trajectory.  The order had enlisted the yearly RPO trajectory for both non-solar and solar power purchase from 2016-17 till 2018-19. Following the steps of MoP RPO trajectory and other states Uttarakhand has also notified its amendment to the Renewable Power Purchase Obligation and its Compliance, regulations.

The regulation will be applicable to:

  • The distribution licensee
  •  Or any person, consuming electricity procured from conventional sources through open access third party sale,
  • Or person who installs Captive Generating Plant, with an installed capacity exceeding 5 MVA, requirements also.

The table below shows the Minimum Quantum of Purchase in percentage (%) from renewable sources (in terms of energy in kWh) of total consumption:

The said obligations will be applicable on total consumption of electricity by an obligated entity, excluding consumption met from hydro electric sources of power.

Analysis:

  • RPO to be applied on co-generation power
  •  Consumption from hydro sources to be excluded
  • RPO % is proposed to increase steeply – from 11.50% in 2016-17 to 14.25% in 2017-18 line with the MoP Trajectory. However, in effect the overall RPO of the UK will fall as 70% of the power consumed in the state comes from hydro sources.
  • In year 2013, UERC had come up with a five year long RPO Trajectory ranging from 6.05% (including both solar & non solar) in 2013-14 to 10.50% in 2017-18. The commission now proposes to increase its RPO target in comparison to its earlier trajectory, though the commission has not defined the RPO% FOR 2018-19 unlike other states. The graph given below gives a comparison between the MoP recent RPO Trajectory and UERC’s earlier RPO Trajectory.

Since Uttarakhand mostly thrives on the energy produced through Hydro Power, the state could be a beneficiary since RPO is excluded from RPO obligation as per the regulation.

The graph below shows the total and type of energy consumption by the state of Uttarakhand. The data has been derived from CEA Report.

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