REC TRADE RESULT AUGUST 2017

Supreme Court allowed conditional trading of Non-solar RECs in an order dated July 14, 2017 . Demand was expected to be low for two reasons – 1) obligated entities are required to pay at old RECs rate (Rs 1500/ REC); and 2) compliance is required to be done by March to obligated entities have enough time to comply even after the final order of Aptel is received.

This is the second month when trading has taken place after CERC allowed conditional trading of Non-Solar RECs but the demand was not as robust as last time .

Non-solar demand was marginally higher than in August 2016 , and significantly lower than last month. In total 2.89 lakh RECs were traded (11.83 % higher than August 2016), and clearing ratios on IEX and PXIL were 1.05% and 4.96% respectively.


Solar RECs were not traded as the stay imposed by the Supreme Court remains in force in the case of Solar RECs.

DERC NOTIFIES RPO REGULATION

The DERC has released draft RPO regulations in an order dated 28/07/2017. Following are the salient features of the regulation:

 

  1. RPO Compliance:

  • Aggregate from the gross purchases from generating stations by Obligated entities shall be considered as the quantum of RE purchase for RPO compliance.

  • All the power produced from Waste-to-energy plants shall be procured by the distribution licensee. This will also contribute towards RPO compliance.

  • Quarterly reports shall be submitted by the obligated entities which will include parameters such as capacity addition, generation and purchase of electricity from RE sources. The same shall also be posted on their website.

  1. Role of SNA:

 

  • Protocol development for regular information collection from RE generating companies, obligated entities, SLDC, chief electrical inspector, ets.

  • RE procurement and RPO compliance reports on a monthly basis by obligated entities which shall also go on their websites. This shall be done by the 10th of the next month.

  • It shall also receive information on or before 30th April from captive users who are consuming electricity generated from captive generating plants about electricity consumption and purchase from RE sources.

  • The same shall be applicable for open access consumers.

This regulation isn’t very different from the previous RPO regulation which was released in October 2012.

The order can be accessed here. The public notice can be accessed here.

CERC REJECTS IEX’S PROPOSAL FOR GDAM

The Indian Energy Exchange (IEX), so as to provide the obligated entities more number of ways to fulfill their RPO compliance, had proposed to the CERC to allow the existing renewable energy generators to trade RE on IEX.

 

For the same, it had proposed that the following contracts including Green Day Ahead Market (G-DAM) which includes Solar and non-solar day ahead market be introduced. If the bid made in the G-DAM is not cleared or cleared partially, they can bid in DAM. Also, in lieu of the bid cleared in DAM, the seller will get equal number of RECs.

This order was rejected by the CERC and the following reasons were given for the same:

  • As per CERC, the status regarding the availability of surplus power is not clear. Also, based on the experiences in the past, it can be established that such trade will not lead to addition of new RE capacity.

  • The IEX has supposed that there are no discrepancies in the forecasting and scheduling for RE generators which is not the case. Therefore, their suggestions of remove the need for revision flexibility during the day is not valid.

  • Based on the suggestions of IEX which mentioned that in case if the bid made in the G-DAM is not cleared or cleared partially, they can bid in DAM, it can be assumed that the situation will lead to registration of RE sellers for FIT route as well as REC mechanism. This will demand that a system be established where there is proper accreditation, registration, accounting of RE generation and settlement mechanism.

  • The G-DAM market may dissuade the buyers from entering into long term contracts which provide comfort to RE investors.

  • The guidelines related to the timelines for scheduling of power traded will have to be amended as per IEX which the commission felt will be an unnecessary step right now.

  • IEXs recommendations assume that the the green power traded in G-DAM will follow the same scheduling procedure as that followed by conventional power. Therefore, the commission feels that there is no need to introduce a separate segment for trading.

The order can be accessed here.

REC TRADE RESULT JULY 2017

Supreme Court allowed conditional trading of Non-solar RECs on July 14, 2017 (our blog on the same can be accessed here). Demand was expected to be low for two reasons – 1) obligated entities are required to pay at old RECs rate (Rs 1500/ REC); and 2) compliance is required to be done by March to obligated entities have enough time to comply even after the final order of Aptel is received.

However, demand for Non-solar RECs was robust. In total 4.95 lakh RECs were bought (110.76 % higher than July 2016), and clearing ratios on IEX and PXIL were 4.31% and 3.52% respectively. Higher demand was primarily driven by demand for some utilities where state regulators had given RPO enforcement orders in recent months.

Solar RECs were not traded as the stay imposed by the Supreme Court remains in force in the case of Solar RECs.

MP PROPOSES AMENDMENTS TO RPO REGULATIONS

The MPERC has released the Sixth amendment to Madhya Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission (Cogeneration and Generation of Electricity from Renewable Sources of Energy) (Revision-I) Regulations, 2010 [ARG-33(I)(vi) of 2017] on July 1st 2017. In these regulations, it has revised the RPO percentage which will be applicable to the obligated entities within the state of Madhya Pradesh. Comments are invited till 24th July. The graph below gives a comparison of the RPO percentages suggested as compared to the MoP trajectory.

 

The analysis of the previous amendment can be read here.

The regulation can be accessed here

 

ANDHRA PRADESH RELEASES RPO REGULATIONS FOR FY 2017:

The Andhra Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission (APERC) has release RPO percentages for the years 2017-22. The RPO percentages have increased significantly since last year. In the year 2016-17, the RPO percentages were 2% for non-solar and 1% for solar. For the year 2017-18, the percentage has been increased to 6% and 3% for non-solar and solar respectively.

This percentage is applicable on total consumption of electricity including hydro and mini-hydel. The RPO percentages given in the regulation are as follows:

 

A comparison between the MoP trajectory and the percentages for this FY is given as follows:

 

The regulation can be accessed here.

REC TRADE RESULTS APRIL 2017

Being the first trade session of the financial year 2017-18, the April trade session was a robust one. Total Non-solar demand was 5.37 lakhs (vs 8.8 L demand in March), and clearing ratios on IEX and PXIL were 4.56% and 4.4% respectively.

Total solar demand was 2.08 lakhs, and the clearing ratio in IEX and PXIL were 2.53% and 8.76% respectively (March 2017 demand was 1.43 lakhs).

 

Non Solar – The clearing ratio stood at 4.56% and 4.4% in both IEX and PXIL respectively.

 

Solar – Clearing ratio stood at 2.53% and 8.76% in IEX and PXIL respectively.

 

HIMACHAL PRADESH ELECTRICITY REGULATORY COMMISSION (RENEWABLE POWER PURCHASE OBLIGATION AND ITS COMPLIANCE) REGULATION

HPERC has notified Renewable Purchase Obligation and its compliance, 3rd amendment 2017 on 24th March 2017.

 

Quantum of Renewable Power Purchase Obligation (RPPO)

 

Since Himachal Pradesh mostly thrives on the energy produced through Hydropower, the state will be a beneficiary since RPO is excluded from RPO obligation as per the regulation.

The graph below shows the total and type of energy consumption by the state of Himachal Pradesh. The data has been derived from CEA Report.

 

Almost 3/4th energy of the total consumption comes from the Hydro Power. Its an added advantage for the state that RPO is exempted from the power consumed through Hydro sources, thus this in turn will reduce the cost of power from the state.

The graph below gives a comparison between the MoP recent RPO Trajectory and HPERC’s earlier RPO Trajectory:

HPERC for computing Renewable purchase obligation for a year of obligated has included  the transmission and distribution losses within the state in the following manner:

  • In case the electricity is purchased by such obligated entity from sources outside state , the electricity at state periphery shall be considered as the consumption of obligated entity

  • In case the electricity is purchased or generated from generating sources located within the state the electricity injected at the generating bus bar shall be considered as its consumption

The above given clauses are against the law of Electricity Act 2003 as for computing renewable purchase obligation total consumption has to taken under consideration excluding the transmission and distribution losses.

The Supreme Court order on RPO dated 13th May 2015 has taken into consideration the word “ Total Consumption” which also has been used in Electricity Act 2003. One can find below the reference from the act Section 86 (e):

promote cogeneration and generation of electricity from renewable sources of energy by providing suitable measures for connectivity with the grid and sale of electricity to any person, and also specify, for purchase of electricity from such sources, a percentage of the total consumption of electricity in the area of a distribution licence;

 The regulation can be accessed here.

REC TRADE RESULTS MARCH 2017:

March trading results were far better than anticipated considering the recent CERC order on revised floor and forbearance prices. The March trade session remained a robust one. Total Non-solar demand was 8.88 lakhs (vs 10.4 L demand in February), and clearing ratios on IEX and PXIL were 6.11% and 9.6% respectively. For the full year FY 16-17, total RECs sold were 59.3 lakh as compared to 43 lakhs last year – an increase of almost 37.7%. This was the last trading session of FY 16-17.

 

Total solar demand was 1.43 lakhs, and the clearing ratio in IEX and PXIL were 2.90% and 2.74% respectively (Feb 2017 demand was 49,544). For the full year FY 16-17, total RECs sold were 5.5 lakh as compared to 6.4 lakhs last year – a decrease of almost 14.06%.

Non Solar – The clearing ratio stood at 6.11% and 9.6% in both IEX and PXIL respectively.

Solar – Clearing ratio stood at 2.90% and 2.74% in IEX and PXIL respectively.

 

NEW FORBEARANCE AND FLOOR PRICE FOR REC FRAMEWORK:

Summary:

  • The Honorable CERC published the final order on revised price bands for RECs which will be valid from April 1, 2017 onwards.

  • The new floor and forbearance prices are given below

 

  • This represents a drastic reduction of 71% for Solar RECs, and 33% for non-solar RECs

  • Existing inventory of RECs will not be given vintage multiplier

  • RECs that were at the verge of expiry have been given an extension
Impact on the market:

Immediate impact:

  • Overall, existing RECs projects will take a loss of Rs 1,866 crore due to reduction in the value of existing REC inventory. This represents roughly 50% of the total value of RECs. With such a significant loss, it is likely that several projects will become NPAs.

  • Reduced trading in March 31 trade session – generally, the March trading session sees high trading volumes as it is the last trading session of the compliance period. However, with the prospect of significant saving by trading in April, many obligated entities are likely to postpone trading to the next month.

Infact, this has been acknowledged and even allowed by a state regulator. See relevant order for allowing postponing of trading to an obligated entity here – http://www.mercindia.org.in/pdf/Order%2058%2042/DO-35%20of%202017-16032017.pdf

 

Long-term impact:

  • Potential (marginal) higher demand going forward – RECs prices have come down to such an extent that most captive and open access based consumers are likely to find buying RECs cheaper way of meeting RPO than buying green power. This may also apply in the case of several Discom’s, particularly in states that are power surplus. These low prices may therefore result in increase in demand of RECs.

However, it must be kept in mind that REC price reduction is always beneficial to the Obligated entities which are non-compliant as they will have an option to purchase RECs and fulfill their RPO compliance at lower prices whereas Obligated Entities who have been regularly meeting their RPO compliance will have incurred significantly higher cost. Therefore, a regularly reducing floor price actually incentivises postponing purchase of RECs, rather than meeting RPO.

Without strict enforcement and any risk of penalty, Obligated entities still have no incentive to comply. We believe that RECs demand will increase, but only to a very limited extent, as most obligated entities still don’t face any reason to comply with RPO at all.

The previous order can be accessed here and our analysis of the same can be found here.

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