CERC DECLARES NEW REC FLOOR AND FORBEARANCE PRICE

CERC came up with draft regulations in which they have reduced the prices of their Renewable Energy Certificates to a historic low. The new floor and forbearance prices from the same have been covered in our previous blog which also contains a link of the draft regulation.

REConnect Energy’s co-founder and director, Vibhav Nuwal made the following observations about the scenario in Business Standard “This change rewards non-compliant companies, which can now comply at a much lower cost. It will exert further pressure on distressed projects”.

 

CERC DECLARES NEW REC FLOOR AND FORBEARANCE PRICE

Honorable Central Electricity Regulatory Commission has determined floor and forbearance prices for REC (solar and non-solar)  which will be valid from April 1, 2017 onwards. The prices have reduced significantly and the solar prices are set to reduce from Rs 3,500 to Rs 1,000 and the non-solar REC prices are set to reduce from Rs 1,500 to Rs 1,000.

 

No Vintage Multiplier has been proposed for any technology and existing vintage multiplier for Solar generating technologies registered in REC mechanism prior to 1st January 2015 and shall expire after 31st March 2017.

 

The proposed floor and forbearance prices are given below:

 

The following is the REC price trend:

 

The impact of this price reduction on different aspects is as follows:

Impact on existing REC projects:

  • Reduction in floor price will aggravate the financial duress of RECs based projects: Already the newly established REC projects are under distress. Reduction in the floor price will only aggravate the situation as the number of unsold RECs will increase.

  • No Vintage Multiplier: The draft does not clearly state the position on multiplier to be provided on existing inventory of RECs.

Impact on obligated entities:

  • Perverse gain for defaulting Obligated Entity: Obligated entities which are non-compliant will benefit from reduction in prices since they will have an option to purchase RECs and fulfill their RPO compliance at a lower rate. This has never been addressed by the CERC or the state ERC’s,

 

  • Potential higher demand going forward: Most captive and open access based customers will find it easier to buy RECs than to buy green power. Therefore, the low prices may lead to an increase in the REC demand.

 

Impact on the market:

  • Low Demand in March 2017: Since the new prices will be applicable from 1st April, 2017, March will see minimum demand as the Obligated entities will have an option to comply with RPO compliance in the next FY.

 

  • Higher Inventory and therefore lower clearing ratios: If the appropriate multiplier is provided to the existing inventory, the inventory of unsold RECs will jump to 3.6 crore RECS as compared to 1.7 crore RECs as present. Even lower clearing ratios will be experienced at exchanges if the demand does not increase in proportion.

Other issues:

  • Calculation of floor price

  • Validity of RECs

 

The previous analysis of CERCs floor and forbearance for financial year 2012 to 2017 can be found here.

REC Trade Results January 2017

This month’s trading saw a remarkable turnaround with respect to the overall Non solar REC clearance. The clearance ration stood at a shooting high of 10.8% for non solar. The demand for solar REC saw marginal improvement in respect to the month of December. The total transaction value stood at 244.7Crores in comparison to 74.4 Crores last month.

Analysis of Trading:

Non Solar – The clearing ratio stood at 13.5% and 5.7% in both IEX and PXIL, with a drastic increase of 260% in the no. of REC’s traded as compared to last month.

 

 

Solar – Clearing ratio stood at 1.2% and 0.7% in IEX and PXIL respectively, with a significant increase of 49% in total demand of Solar RECs as compared to December.

 

REC Trade result December 2016

This month trading saw good results with respect to the Non solar REC clearance overall. The demand for solar REC saw marginal improvement in respect to the last month. The total transaction value stood at 74.4 Crores in comparison to 53.6 Crores last month.

This month saw fall in the total issuance where the demand decreased by 4.60Lakhs in comparison to November. Though there had been significant increase in the total REC issuance due to the impact of CERC’s 4th amendment to RECs regulations.

Analysis of Trading:

Non Solar – The clearing ratio stood at 3.19% and 2.81% in both IEX and PXIL, with a significant increase of 61% in the no. of REC’s traded as compared to last month

Solar – Clearing ratio stood at 0.85% and 0.53% in IEX and PXIL respectively, with a dip of 23% in total demand of Solar RECs as compared to November.

 

 

 

REC Market demand & supply forecast for FY 16-17

Every year, around the mid-year mark we forecast the demand and supply in the RECs markets for the remain-der of the financial year. The second half of the FY is the busy period for the RECs markets as most transactions take place in this period. As an example, of the 43 lakh non-solar RECs sold last year, 9 lakh were sold between Apr – Sept 2015 and 34 lakh were sold from Oct 15 – March 2016 (21% and 79% split between the two halves of the year).
FY 16-17 is characterized by several changes in the RECs markets :-

  • Significantly higher demand compared to same pe-riod last year for Non-solar RECs (non-solar RECs de-mand is up by 51% compared to the same period last year, ie April to November)
  • Drastic reduction in RECs issuances due to impact of CERC’s 4th amendment to RECs regulations
  • Impeding price change in the short term (April 2017) particularly for solar RECs
  • Changing regulations in light of the national tariff policy (NTP). This will result in much higher RPO and removal of exemption for co-gen. However, due to inconsistencies in the NTP with the Electricity Act 2003 we expect the impact of these changes to be visible only in the next FY.

Overall, we expect demand to remain robust for Non-solar RECs (but not for Solar RECs). Increased demand, combined with significantly lower issuances of RECs will result in much improved clearing ratio for projects that are holding RECs.
Demand Comparison
As mentioned above, demand for non-solar RECs has been robust compared to the same period last year. As of Novem-ber, demand is up by 51% compared to the same period last year.
We expect this trend to continue, driven by several factors –

  • Several regulatory commissions have given out orders for RPO compliance during the year – this is likely to result in significant demand in the coming months. Notable examples are Maharashtra and Kerala.
  • Private Discom’s, which are large buyers, have so far re-mained marginal participants in the market. This is expected to change in the coming months.
  • CPP and open access consumers will continue to be ma-jor buyers, with several new participants coming into the market in the coming months.

Demand for Solar RECs this year compared to the same pe-riod last year has been down by 1%, or essentially the same. However, we believe that by end of FY 16-17, there is a pos-sibility that the total demand totals less than that of the pre-vious year.

This is because the current floor prices are valid only till March 31, 2017. The general expectation is of a small correction in the price of Non-solar RECs and a signifi-cant correction in the price of solar RECs. Besides this, the vintage multiplier (of 2.66x) currently in place will also expire. This may result in

(a) Significant price reduc-tion of Solar RECs,

(b) a major jump in S-RECs inventory as existing S-RECs are adjusted to the new price, and

(c) drastic reduction in S-RECs issuance from April 2017 on-wards.
These changes in the near future make market forecast-ing for solar RECs a perilous task. Our approach assess demand in the same basis as mentioned above, but moderates it by a significant factor as closer to March obligated entities are expected to hold off purchases till new prices take effect.

RECs Supply
Two factors have resulted in reduced supply of RECs :-

 

  • Several projects have existed the RECs mechanism in favor of green power sale/ state tariff PPA or captives as RECs are no longer a viable mechanism
  • Impact of the 4th amendment to RECs regulations by CERC

As a result, Non-solar RECs issuance is down by 38%  compared to the same period last year, and Solar RECs issu-ances down by 41%. Going forward, we expect the non-solar RECs issuance to remain subdued compared to last year (as a big impact of the 4th amendment has been on sugar co-gen project which see issuances starting from November to April or May). For the full year FY16-17 we forecast Non-solar RECs issuance to be 35% below the last year number. The reduction in Solar RECs issuance is due to higher issu-ance last year as a result of solar vintage multipliers, and time-lag this year as the documentation related to 4th amendment is completed. Overall, we expect the year to end with roughly 30% lower issuance compared to last year.

Demand and supply
We have forecast demand under three scenarios –

(1) Base case – demand from states that have enforced RPO in the past or have current orders for RPO enforcement are in-cluded. Even for such states, a probably of demand material-izing is applied to the total RPO gap;

(2) Medium enforce-ment – expected demand from states that have on-going RPO assessment are added to the demand in scenario 1;

(3) High enforcement – this scenario envisages that most states will take some action towards RPO enforcement. Under this scenario, even those states that have not enforced RPO regulations till date are expected to initiate action, albeit the expected demand from such states is moderated by assign-ing a low probability (20-30%).

Conclusion:

Looking at the overall picture after the demand-supply forecasting exercise shows the following:

  • Non-solar RECs markets are showing a significant improvement. Demand is up by 51% compared to last year, and this year may become the first one in which demand exceeds issuance during the year. This is a major development towards the revival of the RECs markets.
  • Solar RECs market however is lagging behind. Demand has failed to increase this year, and may actually be lower than last year. This is driven primarily by expectation of drastic price decrease in April 2017. Only possibility of this scenario changing is if a large demand comes Discom’s.

 

REC Trade Result October 2016

Analysis of Trading:

 

Non Solar – The clearing ratio stood at 1.9% and 2.06% in both IEX and PXIL, with a significant increase of 46% in the no. of REC’s traded as compared to last month

Solar – Clearing ratio stood at 0.86 % and 1.16% in IEX and PXIL respectively, with an increase of 13% in total demand of Solar RECs as compared to last month.

This month trading saw significant improvement in the demand for both Solar and Non-Solar RECs as compared to last month. The total transaction value stood at 50.66 Crores in comparison to 37.5 Crores last month.

In contradictory to the total demand, this month saw a dip in the total REC issuance, where the demand increased by 1 lakh in comparison to September. This could be attributed due to the impact of CERC’s 4th amendment to RECs regulations.

 

Madhya Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission (Cogeneration and Generation of Electricity from Renewable Sources of Energy) (Revision-I)

Madhya Pradesh Electricity regulatory Commission (MPERC) recently ordered amendment for its Cogeneration and Generation of Electricity from Renewable Sources of Energy Regulation 2010.

The new amendment has defined the minimum quantum of electricity to be procured by all the Obligated Entities from Co-generation from Renewable Sources of electricity expressed as % of their total annual procurement of Electrical Energy.

The new amendment has excluded consumption met from hydro sources of power during the following Financial Years given as under:-

 

As the Ministry of Power (MoP) declared the national RPO trajectory recently, all the states are expected to declare their RPO trajectory soon.

The MPERC Draft can be accessed here.

REC Trade Result September 2016

The month of September trading saw significant decrease in the demand for both Solar and Non-Solar RECs as compared to last month. The total transaction value stood at 37.5 Crores in comparison to 52 Crores last month.

Analysis of Trading:

Non Solar – The clearing ratio stood at 1.36% in both IEX and PXIL for Non Solar REC’s.  A total of 1, 75,525 RECs were traded this month as compared to 2, 58,891 RECs traded in last month, a decrease of 32%.

Solar – Clearing ratio stood at 0.8 % and 0.98% in IEX and PXIL respectively, with significant decrease of 20% in total demand of Solar RECs as compared to last month.

 

 

 

In contradictory to the total demand, this month also huge rise in the total REC issuance where the issuance increased by more than 5 lakhs as compared to the past month’s total issuance. This could be attributed due to the impact of CERC’s 4th amendment to RECs regulations.

REC Trade Result August 2016

This month trading saw marginal increase in the demand for both Solar and Non-Solar RECs as compared to last month. Compared to August 2015, demand was almost double this month.  The total transaction value stood at 52 Crores in comparison to 40 Crores last month.

This month also saw significant fall in the total REC issuance with 40% reduction as compared to the past month’s total issuance. However, this is likely to be a temporary blip as RECs issuances are yet to catch up after the impact of CERC’s 4th amendment to RECs regulations.

 

Analysis of Trading:

 

Non Solar – Clearing ratio in exchange stood at 1.86% and 2.27%in IEX and PXIL respectively for Non Solar REC’s.  A total of 2, 58,891 RECs were traded as compared to 2, 35,007 RECs traded in July, an increase of 10%.

 

 

Solar – Clearing ratio stood good at 0.99% and 1.4% in IEX and PXIL respectively, with a marginal increase of 5% in total demand of Solar RECs as compared to last month.

REC Trade Result July 2016

In contrast to June 2016, which saw huge demand for both Non-solar and Solar RECs, this month trading did not fare that well.  This month trading saw a dip in the demand for both Solar and Non-Solar RECs. The demand though increased twice the amount in comparison to July 2015.  The total transaction value stood at roughly half as compared to previous month, i.e. 40 Crores as compared to 80 Crores last month.

Analysis of Trading:

Non Solar – Clearing ratio in exchange stood at 1.91% and 1.69 % in IEX and PXIL respectively for Non Solar REC’s.

Solar – Clearing ratio stood good at 1.17% and 0.97% in IEX and PXIL respectively.

The graphs are given below:

 

 

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