REC Trade result December 2016

This month trading saw good results with respect to the Non solar REC clearance overall. The demand for solar REC saw marginal improvement in respect to the last month. The total transaction value stood at 74.4 Crores in comparison to 53.6 Crores last month.

This month saw fall in the total issuance where the demand decreased by 4.60Lakhs in comparison to November. Though there had been significant increase in the total REC issuance due to the impact of CERC’s 4th amendment to RECs regulations.

Analysis of Trading:

Non Solar – The clearing ratio stood at 3.19% and 2.81% in both IEX and PXIL, with a significant increase of 61% in the no. of REC’s traded as compared to last month

Solar – Clearing ratio stood at 0.85% and 0.53% in IEX and PXIL respectively, with a dip of 23% in total demand of Solar RECs as compared to November.

 

 

 

REC Market demand & supply forecast for FY 16-17

Every year, around the mid-year mark we forecast the demand and supply in the RECs markets for the remain-der of the financial year. The second half of the FY is the busy period for the RECs markets as most transactions take place in this period. As an example, of the 43 lakh non-solar RECs sold last year, 9 lakh were sold between Apr – Sept 2015 and 34 lakh were sold from Oct 15 – March 2016 (21% and 79% split between the two halves of the year).
FY 16-17 is characterized by several changes in the RECs markets :-

  • Significantly higher demand compared to same pe-riod last year for Non-solar RECs (non-solar RECs de-mand is up by 51% compared to the same period last year, ie April to November)
  • Drastic reduction in RECs issuances due to impact of CERC’s 4th amendment to RECs regulations
  • Impeding price change in the short term (April 2017) particularly for solar RECs
  • Changing regulations in light of the national tariff policy (NTP). This will result in much higher RPO and removal of exemption for co-gen. However, due to inconsistencies in the NTP with the Electricity Act 2003 we expect the impact of these changes to be visible only in the next FY.

Overall, we expect demand to remain robust for Non-solar RECs (but not for Solar RECs). Increased demand, combined with significantly lower issuances of RECs will result in much improved clearing ratio for projects that are holding RECs.
Demand Comparison
As mentioned above, demand for non-solar RECs has been robust compared to the same period last year. As of Novem-ber, demand is up by 51% compared to the same period last year.
We expect this trend to continue, driven by several factors –

  • Several regulatory commissions have given out orders for RPO compliance during the year – this is likely to result in significant demand in the coming months. Notable examples are Maharashtra and Kerala.
  • Private Discom’s, which are large buyers, have so far re-mained marginal participants in the market. This is expected to change in the coming months.
  • CPP and open access consumers will continue to be ma-jor buyers, with several new participants coming into the market in the coming months.

Demand for Solar RECs this year compared to the same pe-riod last year has been down by 1%, or essentially the same. However, we believe that by end of FY 16-17, there is a pos-sibility that the total demand totals less than that of the pre-vious year.

This is because the current floor prices are valid only till March 31, 2017. The general expectation is of a small correction in the price of Non-solar RECs and a signifi-cant correction in the price of solar RECs. Besides this, the vintage multiplier (of 2.66x) currently in place will also expire. This may result in

(a) Significant price reduc-tion of Solar RECs,

(b) a major jump in S-RECs inventory as existing S-RECs are adjusted to the new price, and

(c) drastic reduction in S-RECs issuance from April 2017 on-wards.
These changes in the near future make market forecast-ing for solar RECs a perilous task. Our approach assess demand in the same basis as mentioned above, but moderates it by a significant factor as closer to March obligated entities are expected to hold off purchases till new prices take effect.

RECs Supply
Two factors have resulted in reduced supply of RECs :-

 

  • Several projects have existed the RECs mechanism in favor of green power sale/ state tariff PPA or captives as RECs are no longer a viable mechanism
  • Impact of the 4th amendment to RECs regulations by CERC

As a result, Non-solar RECs issuance is down by 38%  compared to the same period last year, and Solar RECs issu-ances down by 41%. Going forward, we expect the non-solar RECs issuance to remain subdued compared to last year (as a big impact of the 4th amendment has been on sugar co-gen project which see issuances starting from November to April or May). For the full year FY16-17 we forecast Non-solar RECs issuance to be 35% below the last year number. The reduction in Solar RECs issuance is due to higher issu-ance last year as a result of solar vintage multipliers, and time-lag this year as the documentation related to 4th amendment is completed. Overall, we expect the year to end with roughly 30% lower issuance compared to last year.

Demand and supply
We have forecast demand under three scenarios –

(1) Base case – demand from states that have enforced RPO in the past or have current orders for RPO enforcement are in-cluded. Even for such states, a probably of demand material-izing is applied to the total RPO gap;

(2) Medium enforce-ment – expected demand from states that have on-going RPO assessment are added to the demand in scenario 1;

(3) High enforcement – this scenario envisages that most states will take some action towards RPO enforcement. Under this scenario, even those states that have not enforced RPO regulations till date are expected to initiate action, albeit the expected demand from such states is moderated by assign-ing a low probability (20-30%).

Conclusion:

Looking at the overall picture after the demand-supply forecasting exercise shows the following:

  • Non-solar RECs markets are showing a significant improvement. Demand is up by 51% compared to last year, and this year may become the first one in which demand exceeds issuance during the year. This is a major development towards the revival of the RECs markets.
  • Solar RECs market however is lagging behind. Demand has failed to increase this year, and may actually be lower than last year. This is driven primarily by expectation of drastic price decrease in April 2017. Only possibility of this scenario changing is if a large demand comes Discom’s.

 

REC Trade Result October 2016

Analysis of Trading:

 

Non Solar – The clearing ratio stood at 1.9% and 2.06% in both IEX and PXIL, with a significant increase of 46% in the no. of REC’s traded as compared to last month

Solar – Clearing ratio stood at 0.86 % and 1.16% in IEX and PXIL respectively, with an increase of 13% in total demand of Solar RECs as compared to last month.

This month trading saw significant improvement in the demand for both Solar and Non-Solar RECs as compared to last month. The total transaction value stood at 50.66 Crores in comparison to 37.5 Crores last month.

In contradictory to the total demand, this month saw a dip in the total REC issuance, where the demand increased by 1 lakh in comparison to September. This could be attributed due to the impact of CERC’s 4th amendment to RECs regulations.

 

Madhya Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission (Cogeneration and Generation of Electricity from Renewable Sources of Energy) (Revision-I)

Madhya Pradesh Electricity regulatory Commission (MPERC) recently ordered amendment for its Cogeneration and Generation of Electricity from Renewable Sources of Energy Regulation 2010.

The new amendment has defined the minimum quantum of electricity to be procured by all the Obligated Entities from Co-generation from Renewable Sources of electricity expressed as % of their total annual procurement of Electrical Energy.

The new amendment has excluded consumption met from hydro sources of power during the following Financial Years given as under:-

 

As the Ministry of Power (MoP) declared the national RPO trajectory recently, all the states are expected to declare their RPO trajectory soon.

The MPERC Draft can be accessed here.

REC Trade Result September 2016

The month of September trading saw significant decrease in the demand for both Solar and Non-Solar RECs as compared to last month. The total transaction value stood at 37.5 Crores in comparison to 52 Crores last month.

Analysis of Trading:

Non Solar – The clearing ratio stood at 1.36% in both IEX and PXIL for Non Solar REC’s.  A total of 1, 75,525 RECs were traded this month as compared to 2, 58,891 RECs traded in last month, a decrease of 32%.

Solar – Clearing ratio stood at 0.8 % and 0.98% in IEX and PXIL respectively, with significant decrease of 20% in total demand of Solar RECs as compared to last month.

 

 

 

In contradictory to the total demand, this month also huge rise in the total REC issuance where the issuance increased by more than 5 lakhs as compared to the past month’s total issuance. This could be attributed due to the impact of CERC’s 4th amendment to RECs regulations.

REC Trade Result August 2016

This month trading saw marginal increase in the demand for both Solar and Non-Solar RECs as compared to last month. Compared to August 2015, demand was almost double this month.  The total transaction value stood at 52 Crores in comparison to 40 Crores last month.

This month also saw significant fall in the total REC issuance with 40% reduction as compared to the past month’s total issuance. However, this is likely to be a temporary blip as RECs issuances are yet to catch up after the impact of CERC’s 4th amendment to RECs regulations.

 

Analysis of Trading:

 

Non Solar – Clearing ratio in exchange stood at 1.86% and 2.27%in IEX and PXIL respectively for Non Solar REC’s.  A total of 2, 58,891 RECs were traded as compared to 2, 35,007 RECs traded in July, an increase of 10%.

 

 

Solar – Clearing ratio stood good at 0.99% and 1.4% in IEX and PXIL respectively, with a marginal increase of 5% in total demand of Solar RECs as compared to last month.

REC Trade Result July 2016

In contrast to June 2016, which saw huge demand for both Non-solar and Solar RECs, this month trading did not fare that well.  This month trading saw a dip in the demand for both Solar and Non-Solar RECs. The demand though increased twice the amount in comparison to July 2015.  The total transaction value stood at roughly half as compared to previous month, i.e. 40 Crores as compared to 80 Crores last month.

Analysis of Trading:

Non Solar – Clearing ratio in exchange stood at 1.91% and 1.69 % in IEX and PXIL respectively for Non Solar REC’s.

Solar – Clearing ratio stood good at 1.17% and 0.97% in IEX and PXIL respectively.

The graphs are given below:

 

 

REC Trade Result June 2016

This month trading saw a huge surge in the demand for both Solar and Non-Solar RECs. The demand rose approximately 2.5 times for both non-solar and solar, while also registering good clearing ratios at both the exchanges, as compared to June 2015. The total transaction value stood at roughly 80 Crores as compared to 31.5 Crores last month.

The positive movement in demand can be attributed to the order of UERC on 20th of June, wherein they have directed all obligated entities to strictly fulfil their RPO obligation of FY 2015-16, by July 2016. This month also saw marginal fall in total REC issuance, and despite the rise in total sell bids, the market showed positive signs of recovery. We expect the other states to enforce RPO more strictly in the months to come.

 

Analysis of Trading:

 

Non Solar – Clearing ratio in exchange stood at 4.01% and 1.50 % in IEX and PXIL respectively for Non Solar REC’s. A total of 417,426 RECs were traded as compared to 161,858 RECs traded in May.

 

Solar – Clearing ratio stood good at 1.24% and 2.28% in IEX and PXIL respectively, with total clearing volume being 2.5 times of the previous month.

 

The detailed result is tabled below:

The positive movement in demand can be attributed to the order of UERC on 20th of June, wherein they have directed all obligated entities to strictly fulfil their RPO obligation of FY 2015-16, by July 2016. This month also saw marginal fall in total REC issuance, and despite the rise in total sell bids, the market showed positive signs of recovery. We expect the other states to enforce RPO more strictly in the months to come.

 

We are hopeful that the FY 2016-17 will bring good fortune to the REC market, considering the proposed regulatory changes and more stricter enforcement by states, which will bring back stakeholders confidence.

 

 

 

GERC Determines Tariff for Procurement of Power from Wind Energy Projects

Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission (GERC) has proposed an increase in tariff for procurement of wind power. The higher tariff is on account of a rise in capital costs of setting up a wind power project in Gujarat.

GERC has come out with a draft discussion paper on tariff fixation and has invited stake holders to file objections before June 10, 2016. According to the draft paper, the capital cost of setting up a wind power project in Gujarat increased from Rs 6.06 crore per MW to Rs 6.13 crore per MW.

The graph below gives a comparison of the wind tariff determined over the few years:

 

 

Cross Subsidy Charges, Transmission and Wheeling Charges:

1.      Cross Subsidy Charges:

According to the earlier orders, the commission had exempted third party sale of wind energy from the cross subsidy surcharge. Also  the cross-subsidy surcharge all open access transactions from wind power projects.

  • 25% of the cross subsidy surcharge as applicable to normal open access consumer shall be applicable.

2. Wheeling of power for Captive Use

a. In Case of wheeling of power to consumption site at 66 kV voltage level and above, normal open access charges and losses as applicable to normal open access consumer.

b.  In case the injection of power is at 66 kV or above and drawl is at 11 kV, normal transmission charges and losses are applicable; however 50% of wheeling charges and 50% of distribution losses of the energy fed into the grid as applicable to normal open access consumers.

 

3.Wheeling of power to more than one locations

Wind power projects owners , who decide to wheel electricity for captive use / third party sale , to more than one location, shall pay 5 Paisa/KWh on energy fed in the grid to the distribution company concerned in addition to transmission charges and losses, as applicable.

 

4. Energy Metering

  • Wind projects shall have to provide ABT compliant meters at the interface points
  • Metering shall be done at interconnection point of the generator bus-bar with the transmission or distribution system concerned. Pricing of Reactive Power
  • 10 paise/kVARh– For the drawl of reactive energy at 10% or less of the net energy exported.
  • 25 paise/kVARh– For the drawl of reactive energy at more than 10% of the net active energy exported

5.Banking of Surplus Wind Energy

As promotional measure, it is proposed to continue the banking facility for 1 billing cycle for the wind power captive projects wheeling electricity for own use.

  • For captive wind energy projects, the surplus energy after one month’s banking is considered for purchase by distribution licensee at 85% of the wind tariff.
  • For third party wind energy sale, the surplus energy after 15 minutes time block is considered for purchase by distribution licensee at the rate of 85% of the tariff declared by the Commission. The order can be accessed here.

KERC Determines tariffs and other norms for Solar Rooftop and Small Photovoltaic Power Plants

This Order is applicable to all new grid connected solar rooftop and small solar photo voltaic power plants, entering into Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) and commissioned on or after 2nd May, 2016 and up to 31st March, 2018.

Sharing of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) benefits between the generating company and the beneficiaries

  • 100% of gross proceeds on account of CDM benefit are to be retained by the project developer in the first year, after the date of commercial operation of the generating station,
  • In the second year, the share of distribution licensees shall be 10%, which shall be progressively increased by 10% every year till it reaches 50% and thereafter, the proceeds shall be shared in equal proportion by the generating companies and the beneficiaries.

Grid Connectivity for roof-top projects

  • 1 kW to 5 kW – single phase 230 volts
  • 5 kW to 50 kW – 3 phase 415 Volts
  • 50 kW to 1 MW – 11 kV line.

Metering

  • Metering shall be in compliance with the CEA (Installation and Operation of Meters) Regulations 2006 as amended from time to time.
  • In the case of, solar rooftop PV systems connected to LT grid of a distribution company, the concept of net metering shall be adopted and the net energy pumped into the grid shall be billed.
  • In the net -metering, the consumer is paid for the net energy i.e., the difference between energy generated from solar rooftop plant and consumed by his/her installation.
  • This concept allows only surplus energy to be injected into the grid. The Commission had proposed to continue with net-metering concept for all consumers, other than domestic consumers.
  • In the case of domestic consumers, the Commission had proposed to adopt gross metering concept where the entire energy generated by the solar rooftop plant is allowed to be injected into the grid

Note – An amendment to CEA (Installation and Operation of Meters) Regulations 2006 has been issued recently, in which a new definition of “renewable energy meter” has been introduced to extend clarity to net-metering scheme.

  • If export>import, ESCOM pays generator at the tariff determined.
  • If import > export; then generators pays to DISCOM at prevailing retail tariff.

 

Applicability of Wheeling and Banking Charges and Cross Subsidy Surcharge:

For solar generators going with intra-state open-access, no wheeling/banking charges or cross- subsidy charges are to be paid.

The copy of the order can be accessed here.

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