REC trade result – November 2018

This month trading session saw a good price discovery for both solar & non-solar RECs. The market saw a significant price hike in solar as compared to last month. The demand for both solar & non-solar remained consistent while the supply remained limited. As we approach the year-end, the obligated entities are in the process to comply with their obligations and hence the higher demand in order to not face any penalties for non-compliance. However, the highlight of this month’s trade was that solar crossed the floor price of INR 1,000.

Non-Solar: This session the RECs were traded at the price of INR 1260 at PXIL (26.0% above the floor price) and INR 1252 at IEX (25.2% above the floor price). A total of 4,46,861 RECs were traded in this session leaving an inventory of 20,43,871 Non-Solar RECs. (However, a significant portion of these do not participate in trading as they would either be owned by Discom’s or are for self-retention).

Solar: Total number of solar RECs traded in this session was 58,877 (368% decrease from the last months’ trade). The clearing ratio was 100% at PXIL & 100% at IEX respectively (w.r.t floor price). RECs traded at the floor price, i.e. INR 1051 at PXIL and at Rs 1101 at IEX.

The overall trade volume (5,05,738 RECs) decreased by almost 39.05% from the last months’ trade volume (7,03,256  RECs).

CERC extends expiry date for RECs due to expire

The CERC had issued an order extending the validity of Renewable Energy Certificates (REC) which were to expire between 15th May 2018 – 30th October 2018, up to 30th October 2018. There has now been an extension in the expiry of these RECs till 30th March 2019. A summary of the RECs likely to expire between 31st October 2018 to 31st October 2019.

Since the past year, the shelf life of the RECs has surpassed its expiry life of one year due to high supply but limited demand. Only post-November 2017 there has been a generous market realization of RECs (both solar and non-solar). Des[ite of this and the lack of enforcement there was a petition filed to extend the expiry of the RECs.

From the above inventory, it is evident that 1,83,999 RECs which have been issued prior to 01.04.2017 are due to expire within the next six months. This includes 38,651 Solar RECs and 1,45,348 Non Solar RECs. Hence the Commission is of the view that there is a need to extend the validity of RECs which are due to expire up to 31.03.2019.

The Commission in exercise of Power under Regulation 15 of REC Regulations has extended the validity of RECs which are due to expire between 31st October 2018 and 31st March 2019 up to 30th April 2019. Accordingly, RECs which are due to expire between 31st October 2018 and 31st March 2019 will remain valid up to 30th April 2019.

 

REC Trade Result – September 2018

Non-Solar: The shortage of Non-solar RECs continues in the current session of September 2018. This session the RECs were traded at the price of INR 1300 at PXIL (30% above the floor price) and INR 1100 at IEX (10% above the floor price). A total of 3,45,576 RECs were traded in this session leaving an inventory of 18,83,673 Non-Solar RECs.

Solar: Total number of solar RECs traded in this session was 15,58,062 (220% increase from the last months’ trade). The clearing ratio was 37.10% at PXIL & 100% at IEX respectively (w.r.t floor price). RECs traded at the floor price, i.e. INR 1000 at PXIL and IEX both respectively. This was the highest ever Solar REC trade by volume, and the second time in the history of REC trading, where the solar REC trading volume surpassed 10 lakh, leaving behind an inventory of just 7,82,333 Solar RECs.

The overall trade volume (19,03,638 RECs) increased by almost 132% from the last months’ trade volume (8,19,608 RECs). In the last six months, this trading session has recorded the highest clearance to issuance ratio.

REC trade results – August 2018

Non-Solar: Non-solar RECs prices continue to rise with robust demand but the clearance volume is constrained due to limited supply availability. This session the RECs were traded at the price of INR 1101 at PXIL (10.1% above the floor price) and INR 1200 at IEX (20% above the floor price). The non-solar REC inventory completely exhausted in August 2018 with a clearing ratio of 100% at PXIL & IEX both respectively. A total of 3,33,479 RECs were traded in this session.

Solar: Total number of solar RECs traded in this session was 4,86,129 (184% decrease from the last trade). The clearing ratio was 29.06% at PXIL & 15.42% at IEX respectively. RECs traded at the floor price, i.e. INR 1000 at PXIL and IEX both respectively.

The overall trade volume of (8,19,608) decreased almost by 50% from the last trade (16,18,069).

REC trade results July 2018

Non-solar: Non-solar RECs prices continue to rise on the back of robust demand and limited availability. The RECs were traded at the price of INR 1050 at PXIL ( 5% above the floor price) and INR 1200 at IEX (20% above the floor price). The non-solar REC inventory was completely exhausted in July 2018 with a clearing ratio of 100% at PXIL & IEX both respectively. A total of 235,437 RECs were traded in this session.

Solar: Solar RECs registered the highest ever traded volume. Total 13,82,632 RECs were traded in the current trade session. The clearing ratio was 40.23% at PXIL & 36% at IEX respectively. RECs traded at the floor price, i.e. INR 1000 at PXIL and IEX both respectively. As compared to the available supply of Solar RECs on March 31, 2018, 77% of the RECs have already been sold.

 

REC Trade Results – May 2018

In both Solar and Non-solar RECs, demand was robust, considering that this was only the second trading session of the new financial year.

Analysis of Trading:

Non-Solar – Non-solar RECs inventory was not completely exhausted in the May 2018 trading session (15,51,691 RECs were retained of 43,44,976).  A total of 401214 RECs were traded, despite demand being at 629069 (as compared to 538,371 RECs traded April 2017; an increase of 16.84%). RECs traded at the floor price of Rs 1,000/ REC at PXIL but increased to Rs 1,010/ REC at IEX.

Solar – A total of 914412  RECs were traded this month (Increase of 4.4% over April 2017). Clearing ratio for both non-solar and solar stood well.

The below graph depicts the Clearing ratio trend of Non-solar and Solar. In case of Non-solar, the clearance was 86.25% at IEX and 94.23% at PXIL and for solar, the clearance was at 14.20% and 23.38% in IEX and PXIL respectively

 

ANALYSIS OF APTEL ORDER ON REC PRICING AND MULTIPLIER

Order in the case of REC pricing and vintage multiplier has now been uploaded on the ApTel’s website. Following is a quick summary of the same:
ApTel has rejected all prayers of the RE generators. Specifically, it has held:
–       Pricing: ApTel found no issues with the change in methodology by CERC when they used bid-discovered prices as against CERC determined generic tariffs.
The order states: “
“In view of the growing competition and induction of latest technologies, more and more generators are participating in the auctions/bids with considerable reduced cost of generation. Thus, the Central Commission in specifying REC prices, has shifted to bid discovered prices in place of earlier generic tariff fixed by it when the RE sector specially solar was in infancy stage.”
 
And
“We have carefully considered the contentions of all the parties and note that under the prevailing market scenario, the prices of RECs cannot be kept artificially high to burden the end consumers. Further, if the prices of RECs are kept high without aligning them with the market reality and current cost of electricity, the obligated entities may not purchase the RECs and try to fulfil their RPOs by other means.”
–       Vintage Multiplier – The ApTel has said that providing vintage multiplier is the “discretion” of CERC, and said that the CERC has provided “cogent reasoning” in its order, and further that the ApTel found “no unjustness in specifying the floor and forbearance prices of REC and discontinuation of the Vintage Multiplier”

–       In our opinion, the justification of price reduction is also to some extent based on factually incorrect premise. For example, the order says:
 
It is also noteworthy that sufficient time has been given to RE generators to sell their RECs at the power exchange but perhaps in anticipation of selling them at better prices has resulted into unsold REC inventory.”
 
            And further,
 
“Another important fact is that among the three routes available for RE generators, the REC capacity is dominated by RE generators operating under CGP and OA route rendering APPC route as the last choice”
 
We believe that this order will have a significant adverse impact on projects and investors that have invested in REC projects. An immediate impact will be that such project will have to bear heavy losses on the existing inventory of RECs – the losses will be particularly heavy for solar projects.
It also does not bode well for future investment in the REC mechanism, as falling RE prices are an irreversible trend. Does this mean that REC projects will have to bear losses of such reduction every year?

UPDATE ON HEARING ON PRICE AND TRADING OF SOLAR RECS IN APTEL

We attended the hearing at ApTel today. The court has dismissed all the petitions – implying that the CERC order remains as is. More details will be available once the final order is uploaded on the ApTel’s website (generally by end of day or tomorrow).
Since the stay on trading for Solar RECs was till the order of ApTel, it stands automatically vacated, and trading will resume from this month (unless a fresh stay is obtained by the generators).
We will provide a very detailed analysis of the order once it becomes available.

REC TRADE RESULTS MARCH 2018

For the first time after 2012, the total demand in REC (Non-Solar Segment) market exceeded the supply available. The trade session in March 2018 also ended the dry run that REC Market has been under since 2012 with 100% clearance on both the Power Exchanges!

Non-solar demand was significantly higher than in March 2017, and also last month. In total 27.69 lakh RECs were traded (211.63% higher than March 2017, and 17.43% higher than in February 2018), and clearing ratios on IEX and PXIL were 100% and 100% respectively. Total traded value was Rs 415 crores (This value is calculated considering the rate of Rs 1500 per REC out of which Rs 1000 go to the generator and Rs 500 goes to CERC).

Trading of solar RECs continues to be suspended due to the stay imposed by the Supreme Court.

 

This value is calculated considering the rate of Rs 1500 per REC out of which Rs 1000 go to the generator and Rs 500 goes to CERC

REC TRADE RESULTS JANUARY 2018

Non-solar demand was marginally lower than in January 2017, and also significantly than last month. However, it must be kept in mind that last month traded volumes were at a record high, and overall, this year has seen significantly higher demand.

In total 12.30 lakh RECs were traded (19.04% lower than January 2017, and 76.41% lower than in December 2017), and clearing ratios on IEX and PXIL were 7.83% and 30.55% respectively. Total traded value was Rs 184 crores*.
REConnect shifted its major volume on PXIL in a timely manner this trade session due to higher demand, resulting in higher clearing.
Trading of solar RECs continues to be suspended due to the stay imposed by the Supreme Court.
*This value is calculated considering the rate of Rs 1500 per REC out of which Rs 1000 go to the generator and Rs 500 is retained by CERC
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