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Blog by Team REConnect

Buying power from Exchanges economically viable for Captive Plants

According to an article in Business Standard, captive power plants have resorted to buying power from power exchanges than generating by themselves. This behavioural change  of power procurement has been attributed to two main reasons :

1. Unavailability of domestic coal.

2. Low spot market prices discovered at exchanges owing to fall in demand.

Energy intensive industries – Cement, fertilizer etc. dependent on captive power production, have been using these low prices to their advantage.

The article has quoted a case of RSWM company of LNJ Bhilwara Group. The company generates power at an average cost of 4.2 Rs per unit (including coal cost and transmission losses). Due to present fall in spot market electricity prices, the company has been buying power at a cheaper rate of around Rs. 3 per unit. The company has also increased monthly power procurement from exchanges this fiscal.

As per IEX, the greater participation from captive consumers at exchanges has triggered higher volumes, greater competition and robust price discovery in short-term power market.

REC Trading Report – April 2013

Non Solar RECs

As April is the first month of the compliance year FY 13-14 a low demand situation was expected in this month’s trading session. Out of 18.9 lakh RECs which were put for sale only 44,459 RECs were purchased by the obligated entities.The about 93% of the total available RECs participated in the trade session.

The market clearing price was Rs.1500/REC at both IEX and PXIL which will remain the same in the coming months also as long as the oversupply situation will continue to prevail.

Solar RECs

The demand of solar RECs was higher than the supply. Buy bid was 3,522 and the sell bid was 3,077 out of which 2,217 got redeemed. The number of solar projects is continuously increasing under the REC scheme which provide a good amount solar RECs in the coming months.

The price at IEX was Rs.12, 206/REC and at PXIL it was Rs.12, 000/REC.

For information on previous months trading, please visit -March 2013 Trading Report

 

 

 

REC Trading Report – February 2013

Non-solar RECs

Demand decreased to 153,000 RECs (down 21% from Jan 2013) this trading session. The compliance period for this financial year will end in March 2013, leaving only one more trading session to go. Given that, the overall demand remains very disappointing. As we have mentioned earlier, till stronger enforcement kicks-in, demand is likely to remain lackluster.

Over 17,42,000 RECs were bid for sale (no change from last month). The significant oversupply situation continues to persist, despite the increase in demand.

3.5 lakh RECs were not bid for sale in the trading session. This represented 17% of the total available RECs.

Prices remain at the floor price (Rs 1,500/ REC) for the seventh consecutive month. Clearing ratio on IEX was 3.3% and on PXIL was 48.7%.

Solar RECs

The situation is more cheerful in the solar REC market.

Demand reduced to 6,777 from the high of 42,000+ last month. Last month saw a significant rise in demand as the compliance year comes to a close. However, given the small capacity in the solar REC market at present, demand remains significantly higher than supply.

Supply of solar RECs was at 2,700 (down 23% from January; possibly due to lower issuances in February – in January 3,300 RECs were issued while only 1,900 were issued in February).

Price remained constant at IEX at Rs 12,500 while it increased to Rs 13,000 on PXIL.

 

See these results in our dynamic market tracker (Beta version)

 

REC Trading Report – December 2012

Non-solar RECs

Volume increased significantly from the lows of November. Total traded volume was 273,644 in December (up from 132,352 in November; 108% increase).

Supply continued to increase. Total sell bids exceeded 14.5 lakh RECs (up 18% from last month). The demand-supply gap remains a significant worry, despite increase in demand this month.

Prices remained at the floor level for the fifth month. However, higher demand meant that clearing ratios improved slightly. Clearing ratios were 22% in IEX and 17.5% on PXIL (last month was 8% and 25% respectively).

 

 

Solar RECs

Demand and supply reduced from last month and prices varied slightly.

Clearing price at IEX was Rs 12,620 and on PXIL was Rs 12,100. There appears to be significant latent demand for Solar RECs (as seen in June and July), but the actual demand tracks available RECs closely.

REC trading report- November 2012

Non-solar RECs

Volumes reduced sharply and prices remained at floor price for the third month.(Rs.1500/REC at IEX and PXIL; from September). Only 1.32 lakh RECs were redeemed this month (down by 41% from last month). The total supply was more than 12.3 lakhs (up by 21% from last month).

The demand has been falling drastically due to lack of enforcement of RPO regulations by state electricity regulatory commissions. Clearing ratios were approximately 8.7 % on IEX and 25 % on PXIL.

 

Solar RECs

Demand reduced by 23.3% from last month (3,363 in October) as well as the supply (down by 10% from last month).

 

The market clearing price on IEX was Rs 12,720 and on PXIL was Rs 12,100 (last month it was Rs 12,500 on PXIL and Rs.12,680 on IEX). The total Solar RECs cleared was 1,219 ( last month it was 1,791). Supply was unusually high last month as some projects were issued RECs for several months at a time.

REC Trading Report – October 2012

Non-solar RECs

The prices remained at floor price this month (Rs.1500/REC at IEX and PXIL; this is the same in September) as supply has remained far in excess of demand. The total RECs available this month was 15 lakh out of which only 2.22 lakh RECs were redeemed leaving an inventory of 12.8 lakh RECs .

10 lakh RECs were bid for sale ( up by 42 % from last month) while demand was for only 2.22 lakh RECs (down 16 %).

Demand has remained low in the last couple of months. The major reason slow progress on enforcement by SERCs. Clearing ratios were approximately 30% on IEX and 70% on PXIL.

Solar RECs

Demand went up by 82% from last month whereas the supply also went up by 15%. The market clearing price on IEX was Rs 12,680 and on PXIL was Rs 12,500 (last month it was Rs 12,900 on PXIL and Rs.12,500 on IEX). In total, 1,791 Solar RECs were sold (last month it was 1,160)

Coverage of October trading session in the Hindu can be accessed here, at Bloomberg here and in Business Standard here.

 

RECs markets face uncertaininty due to lack of enforcement: Businessworld

We have highlighted the problem with enforcement regularly. A recent article in Businessworld brings the issue center-stage.

Jayant Deo, former MD and CEO of the Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) is quoted as saying:

” [obligated] entities are getting away with non-compliance because of poor enforcement of regulations and the lack of any penalties. With state discoms being allowed to renege on obligations, many expect private players to follow suit”

The recent demand-supply gap in the September 2012 trading session and the inventory that is building up is starting to worry project developers and potential investors in the renewable space. Vibhav Nuwal of REConnect Energy is also quoted in the article:

“70–80 per cent of the demand comes from the private discoms. The remaining come from captive and open-access consumers,” says Vibhav Nuwal, director at REConnect Energy, the largest trader in this market. Although, Nuwal says, the solar REC market, which began trading in May 2012, is too small and volatile to draw inferences from; he acknowledges the widening demand-supply gap in the non-solar segment.

 

REC Trading Report – September 2012

Non-solar RECs

Prices remained at floor price this month as supply has remained far in excess of demand. The over-supply situation has persisted for the last few months – this month 7.11 lakh RECs were bid for sale (up 13% from August), while demand was for 2.64 lakh RECs (down 6.7%).

Demand has remained depressed due to enforcement concerns. As a result, the demand-supply is continuing to widen. RECs issuances have been robust but demand has been growing slowly.

Demand is a function of RPO enforcement expectations. Recent court rulings in this will help but we do not expect its effects to be visible in the market for a few months.

Cleared volume at IEX was 239,364 (Aug – 248,168; down 3.5%) and at PXIL was 25,082 (Aug – 25,725; down 2.5%)

Solar RECs

Demand decreased from last month (from 2,331 to 1,852; down 21%). On the other hand, RECs bid for sale increased significantly as more solar capacity was commissioned (1621 vs 550; up 194%). The market clearing price on IEX was Rs 12,500 and on PXIL was Rs 12,900 (last month it was Rs 12,850 on both exchanges). In total, 1,160 Solar RECs were sold (last month it was 379).

Total market value exceeded Rs 41 crore, of which Rs 1.46 crore were from Solar RECs.

The Hindu Business Line’s coverage on the REC trading quoted Vishal Pandya , Director, REConnect Energy Solutions “Not many buyers turned up for the trade session this month. Two quarters are over and we are yet to see a larger level of participation from obligated entities,”

REC Trading Report – August 2012

Prices crashed to Rs 1,500 on IEX and Rs 1,555 on PXIL; a fall of 25% and 29% respectively over last month. This price fall was driven by a significant over-supply situation – close to 6.27 lakh RECs (33% increase from July) were bid for sale while demand was 2.83 lakh (76% increase; but there’s more to the story – see below).

Demand increased this month compared to July 2012. July had witnessed a steep fall (July demand was 161,000 while in June it was 350,000). The increase this month can be attributed to renewed interest by buyers due to expectation of a price drop as the oversupply situation developed.

Despite a comeback by buyers, there as a large demand-supply gap. Supply has been robust due to multiple factors – increasing capacity in the REC mechanism (since March 2012, over 1,000 MW capacity has been added), high-wind season resulting in good generation and cumulative issuance of Maharashtra wind RECs.

At the same time, demand has remained weak due to enforcement concerns. Till date, no state has taken any concrete action towards enforcement.

Cleared volume at IEX was 248,168 (July – 147,369; up 68%) and at PXIL was 25,725 (July – 10,851; up 137%)

We expect this oversupply situation to persist, and worsen, till enforcement actions spur buyers to act.

Solar RECs

Demand decreased from last month (from 8,754 to 2,331; down 73%). RECs bid for sale remained flat (550 vs 549). The market clearing price on both power exchanges was Rs. 12,850 (Its rose from Rs.12800 last month; up 0.4%). Only 379 Solar RECs were sold (last month it was 200).

Total market value exceeded Rs 43 crore, of which Rs 48 lakhs were from Solar RECs. This is up 34% in aggregate from previous month.

For news coverage of August trading session, see here:

  • Coverage in the Hindu Business Line states: “The biggest disappointment among the renewable energy producers (who are the sellers of RECs) is that no state owned electricity distribution company has come forward to buy the certificates, although they are all ‘obligated entities’. This is due to lack of enforcement of their obligations. “Lack of participation from public Discoms and large captive power plants is the main reason behind the price crash,” said Vishal Pandya, Director, REConnect”

 

REC Trading Report – July 2012

Demand fell off the cliff this month, mainly driven by enforcement concerns and expectations of price fall in the future (due to increasing supply). Aggregate demand reduced to 161,000 RECs from 350,000 last month (-54%). On the other hand, supply of RECs increased from 360,000 to 467,000 (increase of 30%). Of these, 158,000 RECs were sold (last month – 236,000; down by 33%).

Detailed analysis of Non-solar REC trading:

The market clearing price on IEX and PXIL was Rs. 2,000 and Rs.2,202 respectively. (Last month it was Rs. 2,402 at IEX and Rs. 2,460 at PXIL; down 17% and 10% respectively).

The price fall is not surprising, given the steep fall in demand. The low demand and cleared volume leaves an overhang of close to 350,000 RECs this month. Next month this is likely to result in significant oversupply, putting further pressure on prices.

Detailed analysis of Solar REC trading:

In the third session of Solar REC trading demand fell marginally from last month (from 9,619 to 8,754; down 9%). RECs bid for sale also reduced marginally to 549 from 563 last month (-2%). The market clearing price on both power exchanges was Rs. 12,800 (Its rose from Rs.12750 on IEX and Rs.12506 on PXIL). Only 179 Solar RECs were sold (last month it was 342).

Total market value exceeded Rs 32 crore, of which Rs 22 lakhs were from Solar RECs. This is down 44% in aggregate.

 

The Hindu quoted Vishal Pandya of REConnect which covered the July trading news:

“With the market starting high during initial months of the financial year itself, we were actually expecting this. However, with prices declining in REC, we can expect new buyers emerging and, hence, prices getting stabilised after few months,” Mr Vishal Pandya, Director, REConnect