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Blog by Team REConnect

REC Trading October 2014 Results

REC trading session of Oct -14 was conducted on 29th Oct 2014.  Below is a summary of the result:- The Total closing balance for the October Trading session was around 11 Million RECs. The RECs inventory is piling up and increasing per month by around 8%, which if seen from the demand point of view is more than the total RECs cleared in the current financial year. In a recent proposal by CERC, the REC prices are expected to reduce to half of existing Floor and Forbearance price.

Non Solar REC The demand for Non Solar RECs stood at 74 thousand RECs. The Total Transaction was close to around 111 Million INR. The market was optimistic for Non Solar RECs. The RECs traded at their floor price of INR 1500.

Solar REC The demand for Solar RECs took a hit in this trading session as it stagnated to 379 RECs. Demand was lowest in the history of the Solar RECs. The Total Supply grew by 22% from the previous month  The Total Solar REC market transaction stood at around 12 Million INR. The Solar RECs Traded at floor Price of 9300 INR.

Contributed By: Cigil

REC Trading Report August-2014

REC trading session of August-14 was conducted on 27th August 2014.  Below is a summary of the result:-

Demand continues to be lack-lusture. Overall demand was 50681 for non-solar RECs, and 1163 solar RECs. Overall market clearing ratio for Non-solar RECs was 0.58%, and for Solar RECs was 0.35%. Summary is given below in the table below.

 

  • Non Solar REC:

Though the Total RECs redeemed this month increased over previous month, it was due to poor demand in July. The demand picked up by 60% from the month of July. The supply rose marginally by 5% w.r.t July. Non Solar price remained at 1500 INR (Floor Price).

Clearing ratios at IEX were 0.40% and PXIL were 0.73%.

 

 

  • Solar REC:

Demand fell significantly over previous month. However, demand was exceptional last month due to purchase by a Discom.. The Total supply grew by 15% with respect to July. Only 1163 RECs were traded this month which was next to lowest as of in this year.

Clearing ratios at IEX were 0.24% and PXIL were 0.43%.

 

Contributed By: Cigil & Vibhav Nuwal

 

REC Trading Report July-2014

REC trading session of July-14 was conducted on 30th July 2014.  Below is a summary of the result:-

The total transaction value of non-Solar RECs reached 47.7 INR million and for Solar RECs was 61.5 INR million. The closing balance of RECs showed a whopping increase of 1.3 million in Non Solar RECs and 0.05 million in Solar RECs. The demand in PXIL fared better in PXIL than IEX for Solar this month. The clearing ratio for PXIL in Solar was 5.5 % whereas for IEX it showed 0.28%.

 Non Solar REC

The demand was to the lower side as Total RECs issued were 1.38 million whereas Total Redeemed was 31809 RECs. The demand took a dive by 77% as compared to the month of June. The supply rose by a whopping margin of 235% as compared to June. Non Solar price remained at 1500 INR (Floor Price). This month showed the highest number of issuance of RECs for the financial year. More insight can be seen in the graphical chart below.

 

 

Solar REC

Total RECs issued this month was 55545 whereas the total redeemed was 6633. It rose by 301% w.r.t June whereas, supply shot up by 23%w.r.t.  June session. The solar demand tripled as compared to previous month.  More details can be seen in the graph.

 

Market Clearing Percentage

 

Credits by: Bloomberg NEF

Contributed By: Cigil

REC Trading Report – June 2014

REC trade session for June 2014 was conducted on 25th June 2014. The following is a summary of results -

The total transactional value of non-solar RECs was INR 208.8 million and for solar RECs it was INR 15.4 million. The closing balance of REC inventory for non solar RECs breached the 7 million mark this  month whereas solar RECs crossed 0.23 million mark.

 

 

Non Solar RECs -

In case of non- solar RECs demand almost quadrupled (up by 376%) as compared to last trade session (refer  - May 2014 trade report) and Supply grew by 5.23 %. Non Solar price continued to remain at floor (INR 1,500 per REC). More insights provided in graphical charts below :

Solar RECs -

Total solar RECs issued this month was 27,787 and redeemed were 1654 only. In contrast to non-solar RECs, the demand for solar RECs took a beating as it went down by 22%. Supply rose by 11% w.r.t May 2014.  More details can be found in the graphs below -

Solar RECs finished trading at floor for consecutive 12 months.

Relevant media article can be read here.

REC Trading Report – May 2014

Demand and clearing ratios touched one of the lowest points in three years.

Non-solar RECs:

Demand in May was 29,255, compared to 79,354 in April (down 63% over April) and down 45% from May of last year. The last time demand was this low was in August 2011. Clearing ratios at both exchanges were approximately 0.45%. Closing inventory of RECs is in excess of 69.5 lakh.

Solar RECs: Demand improved marginally from 989 RECs last month to 2,120 RECs. As a result, clearing ratios improved as well – 0.26% in IEX and 4.8% on PXIL, albeit on very low demand compared to existing inventory. Inventory currently stands at over 2.1 lakh RECs.

The low demand is continuing despite penalty orders in Uttarakhand and Union Territories. It will be interesting to watch the approach that the regulators take in the next few months if the non-compliance continues despite orders from them.

To get details about previous months trading session – Click Here.

Our online market tracker tool can be accessed here.

REC Trade Report – April 2014

We are pleased to bring the REC trade results and our analysis on REC trade session conducted on 30th April 2014.

Following is a brief of the analysis:

April 2014 was the first month of compliance year FY 2014-15. As expected, the volumes in non-solar and solar REC markets nosedived as compared to last months trading session (Refer - Blog – post on  March 2014 REC Trade).  The REC inventory’s closing balance stood at a mammoth 6.6 million RECs. The total RECs redeemed in April 14 were 80,343 RECs only. The RECs issued this month was again a 7digit number – about 1.1 million RECs. Cumulatively, March’14  and April’14 alone added over 3 million RECs, which is 23% of the total RECs issued till date.  This escalation in supply side and almost no demand side participation sums the state of current Indian REC market place.

Non-Solar RECs

Demand dropped by 88% and supply was up by 3.2% w.r.t March’ 14. Price of non-solar RECs remained at floor price – INR 1,500 per REC. Total non-solar redeemed were 79,354 (as per REC registry).

Solar RECs –

Price of solar REC continued to trade at floor (INR 9,300 per REC) for a consecutive 11th month. Demand fell to less than 1,000 and supply rose by 22%. Clearing ratios at both exchanges were close to half percent (0.5%) only. As per registry, solar RECs redeemed in April14 was 989.

For more details please refer table below – Our online market tracker tool can be accessed here.

 

REC Trade Report – March 2014

We are pleased to bring the REC trade results and our analysis on REC trade session conducted on 26th March 2014. Following is a brief of the analysis:

With this trade session, a 12-month long financial year FY 2013-14 comes to an end. The prices for both credits (solar as well as non-solar) remained at floor for most part of the year.  Poor enforcement measures of RPO across states saw a continuous lack of demand in the market.

Close to 17.5 lac RECs were issued in March’14 itself, which is a huge 15 % (approx.) of the total RECs issued till date in India (since March 2011) . This can be attributed to issuances of RECs w.r.t sugar co-gen units in Uttar Pradesh.

A strong policy review is the need of the hour. It is likely and should be expected, that the forum of regulators (FOR) takes up this issue for discussions during the forthcoming 40th meeting scheduled on 2nd April 2014.

Non Solar RECs -

Non Solar REC Supply grew by around 22%. Demand also went up by a massive 74%, owing to March being last month of FY14 (and not due to strong RPO enforcement). Evidently, clearing volume also touched a new high of around 6.5 lac RECs.

Non-Solar REC Price continued to trade at floor price of Rs. 1500 per REC.

Solar RECs -

In case of solar RECs also all volumes had an uptick. Supply was up by 13.22.6 % and demand by 32.63 %. The total clearing volume of solar RECs at both exchanges was 11,019 RECs.

As per REC registry, 24370 solar RECs were issued in March 2014.

Unlike in non-solar REC markets, the solar RECs started trading at floor, only from June 2013. The discovered price of solar RECs remained at floor – Rs. 9300 per REC.

Keeping in view the overall market performance, it can be said that the time ahead for investors in solar REC markets remains grim.

For a similar blog-post covering analysis on previous months trade session – click here.

A quick glimpse of trade stats can be had on our Market Tracker.

REC Trade Report – February 2014

We are pleased to bring the REC trade results and our analysis on REC trade session conducted on 26th February 2014. Following is a brief of the analysis:

February 2014 was the second last trade session of Q4 for FY14. Clearing Ratios improved for both exchanges  (IEX and PXIL) and was recorded just over 8% in terms of non-solar RECs.. As per REC Registry, the market redeemed a total of 3.87 lakh RECs (up by 6 % as compared to last month).

Non-Solar RECs:

Buy bids for non-solar credits rose by 5.5 percent in comparison to last month’s stats. Clearing percentages at both exchanges were at parity. The total transactional value of non-solar RECs was 568 million INR, with price of each non-solar REC remaining at floor (Rs. 1500 per Non Solar REC). REC registry noted a total non-solar RECs redeemed to be around 3.78 lac.

Solar RECs:

Demand of solar RECs jumped by an encouraging 30.58 percent compared to January 2014 trade session. Solar RECs continued to trade at floor price (Rs. 9300 per solar REC). Evidently total solar REC transactional value was also recorded low at about 77.2 million INR. As per REC registry,  8308 solar RECs were redeemed.

For a similar blogpost covering analysis on previous months trade session – click here.

Buying power from Exchanges economically viable for Captive Plants

According to an article in Business Standard, captive power plants have resorted to buying power from power exchanges than generating by themselves. This behavioural change  of power procurement has been attributed to two main reasons :

1. Unavailability of domestic coal.

2. Low spot market prices discovered at exchanges owing to fall in demand.

Energy intensive industries – Cement, fertilizer etc. dependent on captive power production, have been using these low prices to their advantage.

The article has quoted a case of RSWM company of LNJ Bhilwara Group. The company generates power at an average cost of 4.2 Rs per unit (including coal cost and transmission losses). Due to present fall in spot market electricity prices, the company has been buying power at a cheaper rate of around Rs. 3 per unit. The company has also increased monthly power procurement from exchanges this fiscal.

As per IEX, the greater participation from captive consumers at exchanges has triggered higher volumes, greater competition and robust price discovery in short-term power market.

REC Trade Report – January 2014

January 2014 marks first month of Q4 for FY14. Overall the clearing volumes for both type of RECs were marginally less than previous month. As per REC Registry, the market redeemed a total of 3.65 lakh RECs.

Non-Solar RECs :

Buy bids for non-solar credits went down by 11 percent in comparison to last month’s stats.. Clearing percentages at both exchanges largely varied. The total transactional value of non-solar RECs was 538 million INR, with price of each non-solar REC remaining at floor (Rs. 1500 per Non Solar REC).

Solar RECs:

Demand of solar RECs tumbled by 19 percent compared to December 2013 trade session. Solar RECs continued to trade at floor price (Rs. 9300 per solar REC). Evidently total solar REC transactional value was also recorded low at about 59.2 million INR. As per REC registry, only 6361 solar RECs were redeemed. With only two months remaining in current financial year, market rebounding to encouraging figures seems far from reality.

For a similar blogpost covering analysis on previous months trade session – click here