REC Trade Results January 2017

This month’s trading saw a remarkable turnaround with respect to the overall Non solar REC clearance. The clearance ration stood at a shooting high of 10.8% for non solar. The demand for solar REC saw marginal improvement in respect to the month of December. The total transaction value stood at 244.7Crores in comparison to 74.4 Crores last month.

Analysis of Trading:

Non Solar – The clearing ratio stood at 13.5% and 5.7% in both IEX and PXIL, with a drastic increase of 260% in the no. of REC’s traded as compared to last month.

 

 

Solar – Clearing ratio stood at 1.2% and 0.7% in IEX and PXIL respectively, with a significant increase of 49% in total demand of Solar RECs as compared to December.

 

REC Trade result December 2016

This month trading saw good results with respect to the Non solar REC clearance overall. The demand for solar REC saw marginal improvement in respect to the last month. The total transaction value stood at 74.4 Crores in comparison to 53.6 Crores last month.

This month saw fall in the total issuance where the demand decreased by 4.60Lakhs in comparison to November. Though there had been significant increase in the total REC issuance due to the impact of CERC’s 4th amendment to RECs regulations.

Analysis of Trading:

Non Solar – The clearing ratio stood at 3.19% and 2.81% in both IEX and PXIL, with a significant increase of 61% in the no. of REC’s traded as compared to last month

Solar – Clearing ratio stood at 0.85% and 0.53% in IEX and PXIL respectively, with a dip of 23% in total demand of Solar RECs as compared to November.

 

 

 

REC Trade Result November 2016

This month trading saw stagnant results in respect to the demand for Non-Solar REC’s. The demand for solar REC saw marginal improvement in respect to the last month. The total transaction value stood at 53.6 Crores in comparison to 50.6 Crores last month.

 

Analysis of Trading:

 

Non Solar – The clearing ratio stood at 1.85% and 2% in both IEX and PXIL, with a significant increase of 2.25% in the no. of REC’s traded as compared to last month

Solar – Clearing ratio stood at 1.13 % and 0.96% in IEX and PXIL respectively, with an increase of 17.5% in total demand of Solar RECs as compared to last month.

 

This month also saw significant increase in total REC issuance, where the demand increased by 9 lakh in comparison to October. This could be attributed due to the impact of CERC’s 4th amendment to RECs regulations.

REC Trade Result October 2016

Analysis of Trading:

 

Non Solar – The clearing ratio stood at 1.9% and 2.06% in both IEX and PXIL, with a significant increase of 46% in the no. of REC’s traded as compared to last month

Solar – Clearing ratio stood at 0.86 % and 1.16% in IEX and PXIL respectively, with an increase of 13% in total demand of Solar RECs as compared to last month.

This month trading saw significant improvement in the demand for both Solar and Non-Solar RECs as compared to last month. The total transaction value stood at 50.66 Crores in comparison to 37.5 Crores last month.

In contradictory to the total demand, this month saw a dip in the total REC issuance, where the demand increased by 1 lakh in comparison to September. This could be attributed due to the impact of CERC’s 4th amendment to RECs regulations.

 

REC Trade Result September 2016

The month of September trading saw significant decrease in the demand for both Solar and Non-Solar RECs as compared to last month. The total transaction value stood at 37.5 Crores in comparison to 52 Crores last month.

Analysis of Trading:

Non Solar – The clearing ratio stood at 1.36% in both IEX and PXIL for Non Solar REC’s.  A total of 1, 75,525 RECs were traded this month as compared to 2, 58,891 RECs traded in last month, a decrease of 32%.

Solar – Clearing ratio stood at 0.8 % and 0.98% in IEX and PXIL respectively, with significant decrease of 20% in total demand of Solar RECs as compared to last month.

 

 

 

In contradictory to the total demand, this month also huge rise in the total REC issuance where the issuance increased by more than 5 lakhs as compared to the past month’s total issuance. This could be attributed due to the impact of CERC’s 4th amendment to RECs regulations.

REC Trade Result July 2016

In contrast to June 2016, which saw huge demand for both Non-solar and Solar RECs, this month trading did not fare that well.  This month trading saw a dip in the demand for both Solar and Non-Solar RECs. The demand though increased twice the amount in comparison to July 2015.  The total transaction value stood at roughly half as compared to previous month, i.e. 40 Crores as compared to 80 Crores last month.

Analysis of Trading:

Non Solar – Clearing ratio in exchange stood at 1.91% and 1.69 % in IEX and PXIL respectively for Non Solar REC’s.

Solar – Clearing ratio stood good at 1.17% and 0.97% in IEX and PXIL respectively.

The graphs are given below:

 

 

REC Trade Result June 2016

This month trading saw a huge surge in the demand for both Solar and Non-Solar RECs. The demand rose approximately 2.5 times for both non-solar and solar, while also registering good clearing ratios at both the exchanges, as compared to June 2015. The total transaction value stood at roughly 80 Crores as compared to 31.5 Crores last month.

The positive movement in demand can be attributed to the order of UERC on 20th of June, wherein they have directed all obligated entities to strictly fulfil their RPO obligation of FY 2015-16, by July 2016. This month also saw marginal fall in total REC issuance, and despite the rise in total sell bids, the market showed positive signs of recovery. We expect the other states to enforce RPO more strictly in the months to come.

 

Analysis of Trading:

 

Non Solar – Clearing ratio in exchange stood at 4.01% and 1.50 % in IEX and PXIL respectively for Non Solar REC’s. A total of 417,426 RECs were traded as compared to 161,858 RECs traded in May.

 

Solar – Clearing ratio stood good at 1.24% and 2.28% in IEX and PXIL respectively, with total clearing volume being 2.5 times of the previous month.

 

The detailed result is tabled below:

The positive movement in demand can be attributed to the order of UERC on 20th of June, wherein they have directed all obligated entities to strictly fulfil their RPO obligation of FY 2015-16, by July 2016. This month also saw marginal fall in total REC issuance, and despite the rise in total sell bids, the market showed positive signs of recovery. We expect the other states to enforce RPO more strictly in the months to come.

 

We are hopeful that the FY 2016-17 will bring good fortune to the REC market, considering the proposed regulatory changes and more stricter enforcement by states, which will bring back stakeholders confidence.

 

 

 

REC Trade Result May 2016

May 2016 saw reduced traded volumes compared to last month and from May 2015. Generally early months of the compliance year see significantly reduced trading volumes. However, May 2015 saw high trading volume due to the Supreme Court order on RPO compliance.

Compared to last month, this month saw a reduction of demand by approximately 44.3% and 21.7%, for non-solar and solar respectively. The total transaction value stood at 31.5 Crores as compared to 113 Crores last month.

This month also saw significant rise in total REC issuance, which stood more than double of what it was last month. However, while solar issuance fell marginally, there was a steep rise in issuance of non-solar RECs. This also resulted in increased quantum of Sell bids at the exchanges.

Analysis of Trading:

Non Solar – Clearing ratio in exchange stood at 1.15% and 1.38% in IEX and PXIL respectively for Non Solar REC’s. A total of 161,858 RECs were traded as compared to 290,457 RECs traded in April.

Solar – Clearing ratio stood good at 0.61% and 0.41% in IEX and PXIL respectively, with total clearing volume falling marginally as compared to last month.

 

The graph below is a Y-o-Y graph which depicts the comparison of REC Traded from May 2014 to May 2015 and May 2015 to May 2016.

 

 

 

REC Trade Result March 2016

March, being the last month of the Financial Year to fulfil the yearly RPO obligations, saw significant rise in demand in both the Solar and Non-Solar segments, as compared to the last three months. Non-Solar RECs demand almost doubled and Solar RECs demand rose by 68.45%, as compared to February. This was the result of stricter compliance and can also be attributed to the recent Ad by MNRE asking all entities to fulfil their obligation. The total transaction value stood at 213.3 Crores as compared to 119.5 Crores last month.

Analysis of Trading:

Non Solar – Clearing ratio in exchange stood at 7.65% and 8.93% in IEX and PXIL respectively for Non Solar REC’s. A total of 11, 14,319 RECs were traded as compared to 586,501 RECs traded in February. Overall, it was a good recovery in this segment, which also saw the closing Inventory come down marginally.

Solar – Clearing ratio stood good at 5.07% and 3.35% in IEX and PXIL respectively, with total clearing volume of 152,006, as compared to 90,236 last month. The recovery was good, but contrary to the Non-Solar inventory, the solar inventory showed no reduction.

 

As compared to March-2015, where the Non-Solar and Solar demand stood at 654985 and 68982 respectively, it was 70% and 120% higher for Non-Solar and solar respectively, in March-2016. However, the closing inventory for the FY stands at 13.28 million and 3.31 million for Non-Solar and Solar respectively, worth close to Rs. 3151 Crores. April-2015 trading saw huge clearance due to late fulfillment of obligations, and the same can be expected next month as well.

We are hopeful that the FY 2016-17 will bring good fortune to the REC market, considering the proposed regulatory changes and more stricter enforcement by states, which will bring back stakeholders confidence.

REC Trade Result February 2016

RECs demand has shown significant improvement over last month trading session. Non Solar REC’s and Solar REC’s traded this month were 70% higher and 57% higher respectively, compared to trading session of January 2016. The total transaction value of REC’s hit a sum total of Rs 119.5 crore, compared to Rs. 71.78 crore last month.

Analysis of Trading:

Non Solar – Clearing ratio in exchange stood at 3.89% and 4.75% in IEX and PXIL respectively for Non Solar REC’s. A total of 586,501 were traded as compared to 344,519 RECs traded in January, but much lower than the volume cleared in December trading session.

Solar – Clearing ratio stood good at 2.14% and 3.58% in IEX and PXIL respectively, with total clearing volume of 90,236, as compared to 57,420 last month. The increase is significant, with much better performance expected next month.

 

Trading volumes are expected to increase significantly during March trading session, as most obligated entities will want to fulfill their obligation for the FY. This trading session results are encouraging, considering last month performances, riding on higher demand on both exchanges. However, compared to the trading session of February 2015, where Non-Solar and Solar clearing volume stood at 747,487 & 44,869 respectively, the performance of Non-Solar RECs was below par whereas Solar RECs demand more than doubled.

 

The trade result for the month of January can be accessed here.

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