ANALYSIS OF GERC DRAFT REGULATION ON FORECASTING, SCHEDULING, DEVIATION SETTLEMENT OF WIND AND SOLAR GENERATING STATIONS

Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission (GERC) has published draft regulations for forecasting and scheduling for wind and solar projects. Important aspects of the regulation are discussed below.

Earlier Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh had come out with their draft DSM Regulation on Forecasting & Scheduling of Wind & Solar.  So far, Karnataka is the only state that has published final regulations.

The last date for giving comments and suggestions is 16th February 2017.

 

Executive Summary:

  • Forecasting and scheduling will be mandatory for all the wind and solar generators connected to the State grid, including those connected via pooling stations.
  • Error will be calculated on the basis of Available Capacity (AvC), with permissible deviation of ±12% for old wind projects and ±8% for new wind projects (ie, projects commissioned after Jan 2010). Permissible deviation for solar project will be ±7%.
  • Aggregation of more than one pooling station is allowed.
  • Penalty rates are different than those in the model FOR regulations. For wind, the initial penalty is Rs 0.35/unit, increasing to Rs 0.70 and Rs 1.05 per unit in higher penalty bands. For solar, the initial penalty is Rs 0.60/unit, increasing to Rs 1.2 and Rs 1.8 per unit in higher penalty bands.
  • 16 and 8 intraday revisions will be allowed for wind and solar energy respectively (one revision every 1.5 hours). Revisions will be effective starting from 4th time block onwards.
  • Settlement will be done through the “Qualified Coordinating Agency” or QCA. QCA will be treated as a state entity, registered with SLDC.
  • SCADA & Telemetry data is to be mandatorily provided to SLDC by the generators. SLDC shall formulate Data/information exchange requirements and protocols for the same.

 

Detailed Analysis:

GERC has recently come up with draft regulation for forecasting and scheduling and deviation settlement mechanism. The primary objective is twofold: a) facilitate large-scale grid integration of solar and wind generating stations b) maintaining grid stability and security. Highlights of the draft regulation are below:

Applicability:

All Wind & Solar Pooling sub-stations, irrespective of their capacity, commissioning date and connectivity voltage level, have to provide a day-ahead and a three day ahead schedule, and intra-day revisions to a maximum of 16/day for wind and 8/day  for solar energy.

Aggregation of more than one pooling station by the QCA will be allowed.

Error calculation and penalty bands:

  • Payment for generation shall be as per actual generation (this is different from the inter-state regulation, where payment is on the basis of scheduled generation).
  • Error is calculated based on Available Capacity (this is same as in the case of draft regulations of TN, MP, Odisha, Rajasthan and Jharkhand).
  • The deviation slab has been kept as (+/-) 12% for old projects and (+/-) 8% for new projects. The reference date for old and new projects is 30.01.2010.
  • Unlike all other DSM regulations, the absolute error for wind energy generators will be reduced by 1% every year from start of fourth year till subsequent 5 years.
  • At the end of 5th year the absolute error shall become <=7% for old projects and <=3% for new projects in case of wind projects.
  • Similarly in case of solar projects the absolute error shall be reduced by 1% every year from start of the fourth year till subsequent 5 years, reaching the minimum of <=2%.
  • Penalty is calculated at fixed amounts per unit (whereas, for Inter-state it is calculated as a percentage to PPA rate).
  • A tripartite agreement will be formed amongst the Generator, QCA and SLDC, in case the generator fails to pay the deviation charges within specified timeline.
  • Energy accounts shall be prepared by SLDC on 10 day basis.
  • De-pooling shall be done in proportion to available capacity, energy generated in each time block, absolute error of individual generator or any other methodology between QCA & Generators.

 

Detailed Mechanism defined for Deviation Settlement

In case of Intra-State transmission, Penalty Mechanism for wind generating station or pooling station commissioned prior to 30.01.2010

 

 

In case of Intra-State transmission, Penalty Mechanism for wind generating station or pooling station commissioned after to 30.01.2010

In case of Intra-State transmission, penalty mechanism for solar generating station or pooling station

A brief comparison of the draft regulation of the 6 states and the Model Regulation is given in the table below:

 

QCA:

The qualified coordinating agency (QCA) will be required to meet certain eligibility criterion. Briefly, these are:

  • Providing F&S services for more than 2 years
  • Having a net-worth of more than Rs 2.5 crore
  • Have experience of working in different “terrains and regions”
  • QCA should have a well qualified team in-house, including skills of data science, statistics and software development
  • QCA should be using software of a “at least CMMI Level 3 certified” company

 

Karnataka defers implementation of Forecasting & Scheduling regulation

The  F&S regulation was notified on 31st May 2016 by Karnataka Electricity Regulatory Commission, with 6 months warming period given to all stakeholders, after which the commercial settlement scheme was to be implemented from December this year. Karnataka had become the first state in India to come out with final regulations for Forecasting and Scheduling.

However, KERC has deferred the implementation of the regulation by six months. Wind and solar generators will now be required to comply with the regulations from 1 June 2017.

The notification can be accessed here.

Analysis of Regulation on Forecasting and Scheduling of Wind and Solar Generating Stations at State level in Andhra Pradesh

In the follow-up after the FOR – Model Regulation for the Intra State level projects, APERC has come out with a Draft Regulation on Forecasting & Scheduling for the Wind & Solar projects at Intra State level in Andhra Pradesh, based on the mechanism suggested in the Model Regulation. Earlier Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh had come out with their DSM Regulation on Forecasting & Scheduling of Wind & Solar.

Executive Summary:

  • Forecasting and scheduling will be mandatory for all the wind and solar generators connected to the AP State grid and connected via pooling stations irrespective of their capacity (MW) and date of commission of the plant.
  • Deviations will be calculated on the basis of Available Capacity (AvC).
  • The deviation slab has been kept as (+/-) 10% for all the wind and solar generators beyond which penalty is applicable at fixed rate as defined below. Whereas the deviation slab for plants commissioned prior to the effect of the regulations is kept at (+/-) 15%.
  • Settlement will be done through the “Qualified Coordinating Agency” or QCA, or the “Aggregator”.
  • SCADA & Telemetry data is to be mandatorily provided to SLDC. Protocols for the same shall be determined later by the SLDC through the detailed procedures.
  • Provision of six months for existing wind and solar generators to comply with the regulation from the date of publication of these regulations in the official gazette.
  • All the new wind and solar generators which shall be commissioned after six months from the effective date of the regulation shall comply these norms before commissioning of the project and connecting with the state grid.
  • 16 revisions allowed during the intraday with each revision effective from 4th time block.
  •  Payment for generation shall be as per the actual generation.

Detailed Mechanism defined for Deviation Settlement

In case of Intra-State transmission, Penalty Mechanism for existing generators:

In case of Intra-State transmission, Penalty Mechanism for new generators:

The regulation can be accessed here.

 

Analysis of Regulation on Forecasting and Scheduling of Wind and Solar Generating Stations at State level in Karnataka

In the follow-up after Draft Regulation on Forecasting & Scheduling for the Wind & Solar projects at Intra State level in Karnataka and based on the mechanism suggested in the Model Regulation, KERC has finally released the notification for DSM regulation on Forecasting and Scheduling for wind and solar in Karnataka.

Executive Summary:

 Forecasting and scheduling will be mandatory for all wind generators having a combined installed capacity of 10 MW and 5 MW for wind and solar respectively at the pooling station.

 Deviations will be calculated on the basis of Available Capacity (AvC).

 The deviation slab has been kept as (+/-) 15% for all the wind and solar generators beyond which penalty is applicable at fixed rate as defined below.

 Settlement will be done through the “Qualified Coordinating Agency” or QCA, or the “Aggregator”.

 SCADA & Telemetry data is to be mandatorily provided to SLDC. Protocols for the same shall be determined later by the SLDC through the detailed procedures.

 Provision of six months for existing wind and solar generators to comply with the regulation from the date of publication of these regulations in the official gazette.

 All the new wind and solar generators which shall be commissioned after six months from the effective date of the regulation shall comply these norms before commissioning of the project and connecting with the state grid.

 16 revisions allowed during the intraday with each revision effective from 4th time block.

 Payment for generation shall be as per the actual generation.

Error Calculation:

% Error (deviation) = 100 x (Actual Generation – Scheduled Generation)/ Available Capacity (AvC)

The penalty mechanism based on % deviation for all obligated generators:

The final order can be accessed here.

Analysis of Draft Regulations on Forecasting and Scheduling of Wind and Solar Generating Stations at State level in Jharkhand

In the follow-up after the FOR – Model Regulation for the Intra State level projects, JSERC has come out with a Draft Regulation on Forecasting & Scheduling for the Wind & Solar projects at Intra State level in Jharkhand, based on the mechanism suggested in the Model Regulation. Earlier Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan, had come out with their DSM Regulation on Forecasting & Scheduling of Wind & Solar.

Executive Summary:

  • The regulation will be applicable till 31st March, 2021, after it comes into effect.
  • Forecasting and scheduling will be mandatory for all Wind & Solar Pooling S/Ss, irrespective of their capacity, commissioning date and connectivity voltage level.
  • Deviations will be calculated on the basis of available capacity.
  • Penalty is a fixed amount beyond the error range (15% in case of projects commissioned before, and 10% for projects that are commissioned after the date of implementation of the regulation.).
  • Settlement will be done through the “Qualified Coordinating Agency” or QCA. However, the draft regulation does not mention anything about “aggregation” beyond the Sub-station level forecast.
  • SCADA & Telemetry data is to be mandatorily provided to SLDC.

Detailed Analysis:

JSERC has recently come up with draft regulation for forecasting and scheduling and deviation settlement mechanism. The primary objective is twofold: a) facilitate large-scale grid integration of solar and wind generating stations even though there are no wind projects, and the potential for wind is negligible b) maintaining grid stability and security. Highlights of the draft regulation are below:

Applicability: All Wind & Solar Pooling S/Ss, irrespective of their capacity, commissioning date and connectivity voltage level, have to provide day-ahead and week-ahead schedule, and intra-day revisions to a maximum of 16 per day.

- Revisions can be made on a one-and-half hourly basis, with prior notice of minimum1 hour for each revision.

- Payment for generation shall be as per actual generation (this is different from the inter-state regulation and the Karnataka draft regulation, where payment is on the basis of scheduled generation).

- Error is calculated based on Available Capacity (this is same as in the case of draft regulations of TN, MP, Odisha & Rajasthan, but different from the Karnataka draft regulation, where error is calculated on the basis of scheduled generation.).

- The deviation slab has been kept as (+/-)15% for existing generators, and (+/-)10% for upcoming projects whose commissioning date lies after the date of implementation of the final regulation.

- Penalty is calculated at fixed amounts per unit (whereas, for Inter-state it is calculated as a percentage to PPA rate).

- RPO accounting can continue as per existing arrangement, and needs no change.

- De-pooling shall be done based on either actual generation or available capacity.

Detailed Mechanism defined for Deviation Settlement

 

This is in line with the FoR Model Regulation, which states like TN, Odisha, MP and Rajasthan have also followed. This will help bring the evenness in the impact on generators, considering that the older RRF regulation had put huge liabilities on generators especially in the low wind season.

The penalty mechanism based on % deviation for all obligated generators:

The draft regulation was notified on 24th March, 2015, and has given time till 11th April, 2016, to submit comments to the Secretary, JSERC.

Other states like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Gujarat are expected to follow soon with their draft regulations. A brief comparison of the draft regulation of the 6 states and the Model Regulation, is given in the table below:

Old/New – Refers to Old and New projects, w.r.t. the date of implementation of the final regulation.

TBA – To be announced.

 The regulation can be accessed Here.

 

 

Analysis of Draft Regulations on Forecasting and Scheduling of Wind and Solar Generating Stations – Rajasthan

CERC had notified forecasting and scheduling (F&S) regulation for inter-state sale of power a few months back. Subsequently, the Forum of Regulators (FoR) had come up with model regulations for forecasting and scheduling at the intra-state level. Rajasthan has published the draft forecasting and scheduling regulations

in line with the FoR model Regulations. Rajasthan is the fourth state to do so in recent days – MP, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu are the others.

Executive Summary:

  • The regulations will be applicable on all wind and solar generators with individual or combined capacity of 5MW and above that are connected to the state grid
  • Deviation will be calculated on the basis of available capacity
  • Settlement with the buyer will be on the basis of actual generation

Qualifying Coordinating Agency (QCA) will play a key role in the total process. QCA will be  responsible for forecasting, telemetry, scheduling and settlement of deviation.

The draft regulations are in-line in every aspect with the model F&S regulations released by FoR earlier. However, the model FoR regulations had proposed a 10% deviation band for new projects and 15% for existing projects. Rajasthan has proposed a 15% band for all projects.

Detailed Analysis:

Forum of Regulators have recently come up with model regulation for forecasting and scheduling and deviation settlement mechanism. The primary objective is two fold :

a) facilitate large-scale grid integration of solar and wind generating stations, and b) maintaining grid stability and security.

Highlights of the regulation are below: -

  • All solar and wind generators connected to State grid have to provide day-ahead and week-ahead schedule – Revisions can be made on a one-and-half hourly basis.
  • Payment for generation shall be as per actual generation (this is different from the inter-state  regulation, where payment is on the basis of scheduled generation).
  • The deviation slab has been kept as (+/-)15% for all generators at Intra-state level.
  • Penalty is calculated at fixed amounts per unit (whereas, for Intra-state it is calculated as a percentage to PPA rate) -
  • RPO accounting can continue as per existing arrangement, and needs no change.

The SLDC will also conduct a forecast of its own with the primary purposed of ‘secure grid operations by planning for the requisite balancing  resources.

Applicability of Regulations

  • All wind and solar generators connected to the State grid are covered:
  •  Having capacity of 5MW and above individually or in aggregate.
  • Regardless of date of commissioning.
  •  Including those connected via pooling stations
  • Selling power within or outside the state. Detailed Mechanism defined for Deviation.

Settlement calculation or Intra-state sale of power is as follows:

Detailed Mechanism defined for Deviation Settlement  calculation or Intra-state sale of power is as follows

In case of Intra-State transmission, Penalty Mechanism for existing generators :

The Draft Order can be accessed here.

 

Rajasthan publishes draft Forecasting and Scheduling regulations

RERC has released draft forecasting and scheduling (F&S) regulations. Rajasthan has become the 4th state to release draft F&S regulations in recent days (MP, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu are the others).

The key points of the regulations are:

  • The regulations will be applicable on all wind and solar generators with individual or combined capacity of 5MW and above that are connected to the state grid

  • Deviation will be calculated on the basis of available capacity

  • Settlement with the buyer will be on the basis of actual generation

  • Qualifying Coordinating Agency (QCA) will play a key role in the total process. QCA will be responsible for forecasting, telemetry, scheduling and settlement of deviation.

The draft regulations are in-line in every aspect with the model F&S regulations released by FoR earlier and can be accessed here.

TNERC Draft Intrastate Regulation on Forecasting and Scheduling of Wind and Solar Generating Stations

The Forum of Regulators recently announced a Model Regulation on intra-state RE deviation settlement regulation which will cover all the existing and upcoming wind and solar power producers in India. States like Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh electricity regulators have already announced their draft regulation on wind/solar forecasting and scheduling, in line with FOR’s Model Regulation.

Tamil Nadu Electricity Regulatory Commission also, recently came up with its first Intrastate draft regulation on Forecasting and Scheduling of Wind and Solar Generating stations.

Detailed Analysis

The draft regulation broadly covers the following aspects:

  • Mandatory forecasting and scheduling of all the existing and upcoming wind/solar power generation at interstate level.
  • The state load dispatch centers are also mandated to carry out their own parallel forecasting mechanism primarily to manage secure grid operations.
  • A wind/solar power producer can either choose to have his own forecast or opt for SLDC’s forecast for the scheduling purpose. The deviations arising due to a difference between the scheduled generation and actual generation will be settled as per the penalty mechanism adopted under the respective regulations.
  • Similar to the FOR’s Model Regulation the Qualified Coordinating Agency (QCA) will manage the entire exercise of forecasting, scheduling, energy metering, telemetry, deviation management and penalty de-pooling at every wind/solar pooling station.
  • In deviation Settlement, the deviations and errors are quantified w.r.t available generation capacity at the time of scheduling. This will reduce the absolute error magnitude especially during low wind/solar seasons and thus reducing the penalty amount that a generator may have to absorb.
  • A permissible deviation band of +/-10% (w.r.t available capacity) and a permissible deviation band of within 5 % (w.r.t available capacity) have been permitted without any penalty separately for all the existing wind and solar power producers respectively.
  • Deviation Charges in case of under or over-injection by wind generators, for sale of power within the State.
  • Deviation Charges in case of under or over-injection by solar generators, for sale of power within the State.
  • Though the draft regulation is in line with the Model Regulation. The table below depicts how the two regulations vary with each other in terms of the Deviation charges and the deviation band for solar and wind generators :
We feel that though this regulation will help to streamline the large scale grid integration and security and benefit intrastate sale of power but it is a much more stringent regulation than the other regulations, since the error deviation has been narrowed down from +/-15% to +/-10% for Wind and +/-5% for Solar.

The Draft Order can be accessed here.

 

Analysis of Model Regulations on Forecasting and Scheduling of Wind and Solar Generating Stations at State Level

As you may be aware, CERC had notified forecasting and scheduling (F&S) regulation for inter-state sale of power a few months back. Now, with the intent of having compatible regulations, the Forum Of Regulators (FOR) has come up with model regulations. It is expected that states will adopt this model regulation or something on these lines in the near future.

Executive Summary:

  • Forecasting and scheduling will be required by all wind and solar project, regardless of the date of commissioning and capacity
  • Deviations will be calculated on the basis of total available capacity
  • Penalty is a fixed amount beyond the error range (10% in case of new projects, 15% in case of old projects)
  • Settlement will be done through the “Qualified Coordinating Agency” or QCA.

Detailed Analysis:

Forum of Regulators have recently come up with model regulation for forecasting and scheduling and deviation settlement mechanism. The primary objective is two fold: a) facilitate large-scale grid integration of solar and wind generating stations, and b) maintaining grid stability and security.

Highlights of the model regulation are below:

-          All solar and wind generators connected to State grid have to provide day-ahead and week-ahead schedule

-          Revisions can be made on a one-and-half hourly basis.

-          Payment for generation shall be as per actual generation (this is different from the inter-state regulation, where payment is on the basis of scheduled generation). .

-          The deviation slab has been narrowed for upcoming projects (i.e., +/-10%) but has been kept as (+/-)15% for existing generators at Intra-state level

-          Penalty is calculated at fixed amounts per unit (whereas, for Inter-state it is calculated as a percentage to PPA rate)

-          RPO accounting can continue as per existing arrangement, and needs no change.

Applicability of Regulations

All wind and solar generators connected to the State grid are covered:

  • regardless of date of commissioning,
  • including those connected via pooling stations
  • selling power within or outside the state.

Detailed Mechanism defined for Deviation Settlement

Deviation calculation both for Inter-state and Intra-state has been kept as :

*Available Capacity would ideally be the Installed Capacity, unless any of the turbines are on outage. Similarly for solar panels.

In case of Intra-State transmission, Penalty Mechanism for existing generators :

In case of Intra-State transmission, Penalty Mechanism for up-coming generators :

The detailed Regulation can be accessed here.

 

Wind & Solar Forecasting & Scheduling Regulations 2015

To overcome the difficulties related with managing the infirm wind and solar power, the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission introduced the provisions for wind/solar power forecasting under the Indian Electricity Grid Code in May 2010. The mechanism was promoted as the Renewable Regulatory Fund (RRF) mechanism. The mechanism was originally intended to be implemented by January 2011, which got four extensions (Jan’12, Jul’12, Feb’13, July’13) before it could get even started.

The mechanism finally got implemented from 15th July, 2013 and subsequently got caught under the litigations as the Wind Associations challenged the decision of CERC to implement such regulations for wind power plants connected under the intra-state networks. Finally, the commercial settlement related with the mechanism finally went to temporary suspension mode in Feb’14.

The mechanism also attracted lot of resistance from various stakeholders due to the reasons represented in the block diagram below.

CERC Forecasting and Scheduling Regulations 2015

The CERC, on 05th April 2015 proposed new framework for the Forecasting, Scheduling and imbalance handling of Wind and Solar Energy generating projects at inter-state level, and finalized the same through notification on 7th August, 2015, to make major amendments to the Deviation Settlement Regulations (DSM) Regulation 2014 and the IEGC Regulation 2010. The highlights of the same are given below:

Error calculation methodology:

The error calculation methodology used earlier and the proposed one are compared below:

The penalty mechanism as per the new regulation is as follows:

  • For single PPA agreements, the fixed rate shall be the PPA rate between the generator and buyer, and in case of multiple PPA’s, the weighted average shall be taken.
  • For Open Access transactions for RE, where consumer is not claiming RPO, or in case of captive power, the fixed rate shall be the APPC rate at the national level.

The existing wind capacity of 23.7 GW[1], most of which comes under the control area of the state, whereas in case of solar, approximately 200 MW odd capacity out of 4 GW[2] comes under the control area of RLDCs. With the central government thrust on large additions year-on-year, in future, large inter-state projects will come under purview of the new inter-state forecasting regulation. However, the regulation for accommodating the capacity connected with the state control area can be expected to be announced soon as the CERC in its closing remarks of the final regulation has expressed the desire for the same.

We are expecting the Intra-state regulation to come soon, along with the implication of the commercial settlement. With the implementation of the Inter-state regulation becoming applicable from 1st November 2015, and possibly, the soon to come Intra-state regulation, it is a huge task at hand for all stakeholders, especially for those generators for whom forecasting and scheduling will be something new to oblige to, when the new regulations are implemented. It also calls for more efficient approach in terms of huge data management schema, automation of operations, forecasting techniques and error handling & response.

As an experienced Co-ordinating agency we have geared up to the new regulations in all way possible, and would like to deliver our value oriented in-house services as per expectations of stakeholders, and even beyond.

The IEGC Amendment can be accessed here.

The DSM Regulation can be read here.

The Statement of Reasons from CERC can be understood here.


[1] As per MNRE data on 30.06.2015

[2] As per MNRE data on 30.06.2015

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