REC TRADE RESULTS OCTOBER 2017

Non-solar demand was significantly higher than in October 2016, and also higher than last month. In total 4.87 lakh RECs were traded (90.78% higher than October 2016, and 27.51% higher than in September 2017), and clearing ratios on IEX and PXIL were 4.5% and 3.3% respectively. Solar RECs did not trade due to a stay imposed by the Supreme Court.

 

REC TRADE RESULTS SEPTEMBER 2017

Non-solar demand was significantly higher than in September 2016, and also higher than last month. In total 3.82 lakh RECs were traded (47.56% higher than September 2016, and 32% higher than in August 2017), and clearing ratios on IEX and PXIL were 3.56% and 2.36% respectively.

Overall, for the six months ended September, Non-solar demand is up by 11% compared to the same period last year. Solar demand is up by 27% despite reading only in April this year. Since then, trading has been suspended due to the stay imposed by the Supreme Court.

 

REC TRADE RESULT AUGUST 2017

Supreme Court allowed conditional trading of Non-solar RECs in an order dated July 14, 2017 . Demand was expected to be low for two reasons – 1) obligated entities are required to pay at old RECs rate (Rs 1500/ REC); and 2) compliance is required to be done by March to obligated entities have enough time to comply even after the final order of Aptel is received.

This is the second month when trading has taken place after CERC allowed conditional trading of Non-Solar RECs but the demand was not as robust as last time .

Non-solar demand was marginally higher than in August 2016 , and significantly lower than last month. In total 2.89 lakh RECs were traded (11.83 % higher than August 2016), and clearing ratios on IEX and PXIL were 1.05% and 4.96% respectively.


Solar RECs were not traded as the stay imposed by the Supreme Court remains in force in the case of Solar RECs.

REC TRADE RESULT JULY 2017

Supreme Court allowed conditional trading of Non-solar RECs on July 14, 2017 (our blog on the same can be accessed here). Demand was expected to be low for two reasons – 1) obligated entities are required to pay at old RECs rate (Rs 1500/ REC); and 2) compliance is required to be done by March to obligated entities have enough time to comply even after the final order of Aptel is received.

However, demand for Non-solar RECs was robust. In total 4.95 lakh RECs were bought (110.76 % higher than July 2016), and clearing ratios on IEX and PXIL were 4.31% and 3.52% respectively. Higher demand was primarily driven by demand for some utilities where state regulators had given RPO enforcement orders in recent months.

Solar RECs were not traded as the stay imposed by the Supreme Court remains in force in the case of Solar RECs.

REC TRADE RESULTS APRIL 2017

Being the first trade session of the financial year 2017-18, the April trade session was a robust one. Total Non-solar demand was 5.37 lakhs (vs 8.8 L demand in March), and clearing ratios on IEX and PXIL were 4.56% and 4.4% respectively.

Total solar demand was 2.08 lakhs, and the clearing ratio in IEX and PXIL were 2.53% and 8.76% respectively (March 2017 demand was 1.43 lakhs).

 

Non Solar – The clearing ratio stood at 4.56% and 4.4% in both IEX and PXIL respectively.

 

Solar – Clearing ratio stood at 2.53% and 8.76% in IEX and PXIL respectively.

 

REC TRADE RESULTS MARCH 2017:

March trading results were far better than anticipated considering the recent CERC order on revised floor and forbearance prices. The March trade session remained a robust one. Total Non-solar demand was 8.88 lakhs (vs 10.4 L demand in February), and clearing ratios on IEX and PXIL were 6.11% and 9.6% respectively. For the full year FY 16-17, total RECs sold were 59.3 lakh as compared to 43 lakhs last year – an increase of almost 37.7%. This was the last trading session of FY 16-17.

 

Total solar demand was 1.43 lakhs, and the clearing ratio in IEX and PXIL were 2.90% and 2.74% respectively (Feb 2017 demand was 49,544). For the full year FY 16-17, total RECs sold were 5.5 lakh as compared to 6.4 lakhs last year – a decrease of almost 14.06%.

Non Solar – The clearing ratio stood at 6.11% and 9.6% in both IEX and PXIL respectively.

Solar – Clearing ratio stood at 2.90% and 2.74% in IEX and PXIL respectively.

 

CERC DECLARES NEW REC FLOOR AND FORBEARANCE PRICE

CERC came up with draft regulations in which they have reduced the prices of their Renewable Energy Certificates to a historic low. The new floor and forbearance prices from the same have been covered in our previous blog which also contains a link of the draft regulation.

REConnect Energy’s co-founder and director, Vibhav Nuwal made the following observations about the scenario in Business Standard “This change rewards non-compliant companies, which can now comply at a much lower cost. It will exert further pressure on distressed projects”.

 

CERC DECLARES NEW REC FLOOR AND FORBEARANCE PRICE

Honorable Central Electricity Regulatory Commission has determined floor and forbearance prices for REC (solar and non-solar)  which will be valid from April 1, 2017 onwards. The prices have reduced significantly and the solar prices are set to reduce from Rs 3,500 to Rs 1,000 and the non-solar REC prices are set to reduce from Rs 1,500 to Rs 1,000.

 

No Vintage Multiplier has been proposed for any technology and existing vintage multiplier for Solar generating technologies registered in REC mechanism prior to 1st January 2015 and shall expire after 31st March 2017.

 

The proposed floor and forbearance prices are given below:

 

The following is the REC price trend:

 

The impact of this price reduction on different aspects is as follows:

Impact on existing REC projects:

  • Reduction in floor price will aggravate the financial duress of RECs based projects: Already the newly established REC projects are under distress. Reduction in the floor price will only aggravate the situation as the number of unsold RECs will increase.

  • No Vintage Multiplier: The draft does not clearly state the position on multiplier to be provided on existing inventory of RECs.

Impact on obligated entities:

  • Perverse gain for defaulting Obligated Entity: Obligated entities which are non-compliant will benefit from reduction in prices since they will have an option to purchase RECs and fulfill their RPO compliance at a lower rate. This has never been addressed by the CERC or the state ERC’s,

 

  • Potential higher demand going forward: Most captive and open access based customers will find it easier to buy RECs than to buy green power. Therefore, the low prices may lead to an increase in the REC demand.

 

Impact on the market:

  • Low Demand in March 2017: Since the new prices will be applicable from 1st April, 2017, March will see minimum demand as the Obligated entities will have an option to comply with RPO compliance in the next FY.

 

  • Higher Inventory and therefore lower clearing ratios: If the appropriate multiplier is provided to the existing inventory, the inventory of unsold RECs will jump to 3.6 crore RECS as compared to 1.7 crore RECs as present. Even lower clearing ratios will be experienced at exchanges if the demand does not increase in proportion.

Other issues:

  • Calculation of floor price

  • Validity of RECs

 

The previous analysis of CERCs floor and forbearance for financial year 2012 to 2017 can be found here.

REC Trade Results February 2017

The Feb trade session remained a robust one, following the record setting session in January.  Total Non-solar demand was 10.4 lakhs (vs 15.2 L demand in January), and clearing ratios on IEX and PXIL were 8.7 and 6.2% respectively. On a year-to-date basis, this year Non-solar RECs demand has been significantly higher than last year. March 2017, which will be the last trading session of FY 16-17, is also expected to result in high trading volumes.

 

Solar RECs trading, on the other hand, has remained subdued. One reason is the significantly solar capacity coming online in states (with record low tariffs) – this result in Discom’s not buying solar RECs in large volumes. Also, the expected price drop in April 2017 may be resulting in potential buyers deferring purchases.

 

Non Solar – The clearing ratio stood at 8.72% and 6.2% in both IEX and PXIL respectively.

Solar – Clearing ratio stood at 1.26% and 0.34% in IEX and PXIL respectively.

 

 

 

REC Trade Results January 2017

This month’s trading saw a remarkable turnaround with respect to the overall Non solar REC clearance. The clearance ration stood at a shooting high of 10.8% for non solar. The demand for solar REC saw marginal improvement in respect to the month of December. The total transaction value stood at 244.7Crores in comparison to 74.4 Crores last month.

Analysis of Trading:

Non Solar – The clearing ratio stood at 13.5% and 5.7% in both IEX and PXIL, with a drastic increase of 260% in the no. of REC’s traded as compared to last month.

 

 

Solar – Clearing ratio stood at 1.2% and 0.7% in IEX and PXIL respectively, with a significant increase of 49% in total demand of Solar RECs as compared to December.

 

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