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Author: rewp

Karnataka has notified draft policy on Solar Power development for the state of Karnataka. According to the drat policy, Karnataka is gearing up to install total 300 MW of additional capacity from Solar power plants (PV & Thermal collectively) in a phased manner by year 2015-2016.Of these 300 MW, 200 MW of capacity is envisaged to be purchased by Energy Supply Companies (ESCOMs) of Karnatakato meet their Renewable Portfolio Obligations (RPO) which currently stands at 0.25% for FY 2010-11.

Further to our analysis of REC trading in April, The Hindu recently covered the same, and so did Business Standard, which mentioned that the REC price declined by 61.5% in just the second trade. We agree with their comment of REC Trading needing a 'booster'. However, we believe that booster will come in the form of more frequent compliance requirement - clearly, if the obligated entity has time till March 2012 to meet the compliance requirement, why bother spending the money now?

Solar Projects are the flavour of the season. The National Solar Mission (NSM) has laid out an ambitions goal to make India the global leader in solar energy, and plans to develop capacity of 20 GW by 2020. This analysis focuses on the impact and feasibility of Solar RECs as a mechanism to finance and operate solar energy plants. As a significant number of companies and investor consider solar energy opportunities, we present an analysis of how workable solar energy plants are under the REC mechanism. Solar RPO are included in most state regulations RPO regulations in each state require fulfilling a separate Solar RPO. At present the solar RPO requirement ranges from 0% to 0.5% of total electricity consumed. It is expected to go upto 3% by 2022. At the same time, a separate Solar REC will be issued to generators who meet the eligibility criterion. These Solar RECs will have a floor price of Rs 12/kwh and a forbearance price of Rs 17/kwh. Demand for Solar RECs Our analysis suggests that Solar RECs demand will be robust. Majority of the upcoming capacity in solar energy is either through state feed-in tariffs, or though the NSM. In either case, that capacity will not access the REC market. At the same time, there will be robust demand as every obligated entity will also need to buy Solar RECs. REConnect’s analysis suggests that 2011-12 demand of Solar power for RPO requirements will be in excess of 1,300 million units* (roughly translating into 600MW of capacity). As a result, we expect Solar RECs to sell at a high price. *Calculated from CEA data : For a detailed analysis please contact us. Most state regulations provide that in the event for inadequate availability of Solar RECs, the Solar RPO requirement can be fulfilled through Non-Solar RECs. Since Non-solar RECs are significantly cheaper that Solar RECs, this can present issues in the Solar RECs markets – companies may wait for the Solar REC supply to be exhausted so that they can buy non-solar RECs for compliance, and it may result in a downward pressure on Solar REC prices. More clarity is needed on the implementation of this clause is the state RPO regulations.

India witnessed first ever trade of REC in March 2011 where 424 Non-Solar RECs got traded collectively through Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) and Power Exchange India Limited (PXIL) at Market Clearing Price (MCP) of Rs. 3900/REC and Rs. 2225/REC respectively. Market got super excited seeing REC prices touching forbearance price at IEX. However, the market got little surprise as well as shock in the very next trade session that got executed in April-2011, in which buyers were hard to find at both the Power Exchanges (PXs). Based on its existing strong hold in the market, IEX managed to get 260 Non-Solar RECs from buy side whereas their counterpart – PXIL could not get a single bid from REC buyers! This came as a little surprise to us (REConnect) as well as the market. We were expecting that the market would see a strong dip in the price due to following factors:

  1. Most of the distribution companies & obligated entities might still be busy settling their financial accounts