CEA’S DRAFT NATIONAL ELECTRICITY PLAN

Central Electricity Authority  (CEA) published the Draft National Electricity Plan (NEP). Following are some of the main features of the report:

• For the 12th plan (2013-2018), target capacity addition from renewable energy was set at 30,000 MW. However, in view of the revised target of adding 1,75,000 MW capacity of renewable energy sources by the year 2022, the capacity addition for every year has been revised. A target of 16,825 MW has been set for capacity addition in 2016-2017. As per the review, capacity addition from conventional sources is going to exceed its target by 115% and private players will play a big role in capacity addition. Coal based plants are likely to contribute around 39% of capacity addition.

• Projections for peak demand and energy requirement has been done for utilities for which two scenarios have been considered in the report for the years 2021-22 and 2026-27. One is with the consideration of DSM, energy efficiency and conservation measures. As per calculations, both peak demand and energy requirement values reduce significantly in the scenario where DSM, energy efficiency and conservation measures are being considered.

 

• The installed capacity from renewable energy sources was 42,849 MW as on 31.03.2016. The share of renewable energy sources in the same is about 13%. However, the share of renewables is estimated to increase as the government is giving a major thrust to renewable energy. India, as a country has vast solar and wind potential. It also has potential for biomass and small hydro projects.

 

• The CEA carried out EGEAS studies to assess the kind of capacity addition that will be required to meet the projected demand for the year 2021-22. Hydro, gas and nuclear are given maximum priority. CEA has developed three scenarios which consider the different combinations of installed capacity from renewable sources so as to determine the capacity addition from 2017-22. From the study it can be concluded that no additional coal based capacity is required to fulfill the energy demands during the year 2017-22 if the capacity of hydro, gas and nuclear are 15,330 MW, 4,340 MW and 2,800 MW and additional renewable energy sources. However, coal based capacity of 50,025 is under construction in will probably be commissioned during 2017-22.

 

• As per the report, Electric Power Survey Committee’s 19th report will come out in some time and on the basis of that, changes will be made to the final Electricity Plan. Due to shortage of natural gas in the country, except for the already existing plants, no new natural gas plants have been planned during 2017-22. Also, the coal based capacity of 50,025 MW that is under construction currently will be able to fulfill the capacity requirement for the years 2022-2027. As estimated, in the year 2021-22, generation from RES will be 20.3%. Imports from neighbouring countries is also estimated to increase from 5,100 MW in the years 2021-22 to 21,600 MW in the year 2026-27.

• The compound annual growth rate of energy demand will grow from 4.42% between the years 2012-13 to 2015-16 to 6.34% from the years 2015-16 to 2021-22. This increase is significantly higher than that in the past considering the increase in demand and the increase due to implementation of PFA and other projects from the government of India between 2017-22. Therefore, as per the report, energy demand of 1611 BU and peak demand of 235 GW in March 2022 under CAGR= 6.34% look realistic and is likely to occur.

 

• The CEA report has mentioned ambitious targets of achieving an installed capacity of 175 GW by 2022. The breakup of the energy derived by various sources has also been given in the report. The report also mentions the percentage of energy that will be derived from various sources and from different states. As per the report, 9 states will contribute almost 77% of installed capacity by 2022. The report also gives year-wise targets for achieving the desired target.

• The targets set by the CEA will require strong indigenous manufacturing facility for equipments related to RES. Policy frameworks may be developed to encourage the same and this will also fall in line with the ‘Make in India’ policy.

 

• At the end of the year 2021-22, the projected peak demand and the energy requirement is 235 GW and 1,611 BU respectively. As per the 18th EPS report, this is around 17% and 16.4% lesser respectively. Similarly for the years 2026-27, these values are 20.7% and 21.3% lower.

 

• As for the capacity addition predicted from 2017-22, development of hydro, nuclear and gas based project is being given priority. Capacity addition estimated from gas, hydro and nuclear is 4,340 MW, 15,330 MW and 2,800 MW. The capacity addition from RES is predicted to be 1,15,326 MW. For the years 2022-27, similar trends as the previous 5 years will be followed. It is estimated that non-fossil based capacity is bound to increase by 46.8% at the end of 2021-22 and will further increase by 56.5% by the end of 2026-27. For the year 2017-22 and 2022-27, low hydro capacity addition of 11,788 MW and 5,000 MW has been estimated.